Credit Vox
In 2024, I wrote an article analyzing when humans will next be on the Moon. Now it’s time for an updated perspective in 2026.
Reading Time: 12 minutes for full analysis + key takeaways highlighted throughout
Key Question: When will humans next be on the Moon?
My Take: Given current funding cycles, milestones achieved, and projected timelines, I would guess that a Moon landing will be achieved this decade. The arguably more complicated question to answer is who will do it first? China and the United States both have significantly built out programs in pursuit of this goal. Private entities have made significant milestones over the last decade to where they’re now in the conversations, potentially possessing the technology required to make a run at this ambitious goal.
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Let’s dive in.
It’s been over 50 years since Apollo 17 (1972). This was the last time humans touched lunar soil.
In the ~70 years since the Wright Brothers made their historic airplane flight in 1903, humans have managed to get to the Moon multiple times.
Yet, despite all of the technological progress that has been made over the last 50 years, humans haven’t been back to the Moon.
If you haven’t been following all of the news, you’d probably be surprised that there are more countries and companies working towards the Moon right now than at any point in history.
Why?
A few reasons jump out as the main rationales for why humans haven’t been to the Moon yet.
Firstly, and arguably one of the most important points, once the United States made it to the Moon, it ended the global chase to be first. The United States had won, and thus other countries could only be second.
Secondly, many large nations that were interested in landing on the Moon had large funding cuts to their space and defense budgets due to the lack of being first, Cold War dynamics, and other geopolitical elements.
Over the last decade, these factors have been pushed aside. Space infrastructure and development costs have come down exponentially. Technological development has rapidly increased. Private space players are striving and competing to be the first commercial entities to go to the Moon.
However, these haven’t been without their issues. Now, space programs are constantly in tension, with ambitious announcements to drive funding and public interest combined with a track record of failures and repeated delays.
All of this shapes up to an interesting, competitive 2020s Space Race 2.0.
United States: The Opaque Leader
By officially communicated timelines and standards, the United States is projected to be the first back to the Moon.
The Artemis program officially began in 2017, formally establishing its ongoing endeavor to land humans back on the Moon. The goal of the program is to establish a sustainable, long-term lunar presence and lay the technical groundwork for eventual human missions to Mars.
So far, the Artemis program continues to drive towards its ultimate goal, progressing through major milestones along the way.
Artemis I, the first of the Artemis missions, was completed in December 2022 and was an uncrewed lunar orbit test. This was the maiden flight of the massive SLS rocket and Orion spacecraft. Orion traveled 1.4M miles, entered a distant retrograde orbit around the Moon, and tested deep-space radiation protection and the spacecraft’s heat shield during a high-speed re-entry into Earth’s atmosphere.
Artemis II, was competed earlier this year in April 2026 and was a crewed lunar flyby. This was humanity’s historic return to deep space. A four-astronaut crew (Reid Wiseman, Victor Glover, Christina Koch, and Jeremy Hansen) traveled on Orion for a 10-day flight. During the voyage they performed critical life-support checkouts in high Earth orbit before taking a free-return trajectory around the far side of the Moon. The crew traveled 252,706 miles from Earth, breaking the all-time human distance record set by the crew of Apollo 13.
Upcoming are three critical milestones: Artemis III, IV, and V.
Artemis III is expected in late 2027 and will be a crewed Earth orbit rendezvous and lander demo. Rather than a direct moon landing, this mission serves as a checkpoint of critical solutions. The crew will launch on SLS/Orion and perform complex rendezvous, docking, and system tests in low Earth orbit with the commercially produced human landing systems (such as SpaceX’s Starship) and test out the next-generation Axiom space suits.
Artemis IV is projected in early 2028 and will be the first crewed lunar landing since Apollo 17 in 1972. Ahead of the launch, a commercial lander will be pre-staged in lunar orbit. The crew will fly Orion to the Moon, dock with the lander, and two astronauts will descend to the lunar surface near the South Pole for multiple spacewalks before returning to Earth.
And finally, Artemis V is expected in late 2028 and will be a sustained surface exploration and base building initiative. This mission marks the transition to a permanent presence on the Moon. It will be the second crewed landing and begin deploying long-term infrastructure, such as advanced surface power systems and early logistics modules.
There are missions planned for 2029 and beyond, comprising Artemis VI through X, with the focus on creating a robust lunar economy and semi-permanent habitation on the moon. The goal is to build a small space station in lunar orbit to serve as the communication hub, science lab, and short-term habitat for astronauts.
Notably, in recent months, NASA restructured the flight sequence so that Artemis III is no longer the landing mission. Rather, it’s a crewed test flight in low Earth orbit to test docking with SpaceX Starship and Blue Origin Blue Moon lander prototypes.
This is the third major slip in the Artemis landing timeline, which, if the trend continues, could lead to missing the entire milestone of reaching the Moon first again.
China: The New Space Contender
China’s lunar ambitions are organized under the Chinese Lunar Exploration Program, widely known as the Chang’e project. While NASA’s Artemis program relies on massive, single-rocket launches, China has executed a highly methodical step-by-step strategy over the last two decades.
China’s early phases focused on mastering orbital mechanics and perfecting soft landings on the lunar surface.
Chang’e 1 & 2 (2007 and 2010) created highly detailed 3D maps of the Moon’s surface to scout future landing sites
Chang’e 3 in 2013 marked China’s first robotic soft-landing on the Moon, deploying the Yutu-1 rover
Chang’e 4 in 2019 was a world first, successfully landing a spacecraft on the far side of the Moon. In addition, China deployed the Queqiao satellite to bounce signals back to Earth. In 2026, the Yutu-2 rover is still operational, making it the longest-surviving rover on the Moon.
More recently, China has been focused on sample returns, shifting the focus to complex, multi-stage robotic operations explicitly designed to test the mechanics needed for human flight.
In 2020, Chang’e 5 landed on the near-side of the Moon, drilled 2 meters into the surface, and returned 1.73 kg of young lunar rocks to Earth. This made China the third nation to successfully retrieve lunar samples.
In 2024, Chang’e 6 accomplished another world first. The probe successfully landed in the South Pole on the far side of the Moon, scooping up pristine subsurface samples, launched back into lunar orbit, and safely returned them to Earth.
Currently, there are two major upcoming missions planned, focused on evaluating resources to prepare for infrastructure building.
Chang’e 7, projected for late 2026, will be a highly complex mission to launch toward the lunar South Pole. It will carry an orbiter, a lander, a rover, and a specialized mini-flying hopper designed to fly into permanently shadowed craters to physically hunt for water ice.
Then in 2028, Chang’e 8 will test key technologies for utilizing local materials. It will experiment with 3D printing bricks out of lunar soil to see if structures can be built directly on the Moon.
Ultimately, China’s Manned Space Agency is rapidly scaling up hardware to land two astronauts on the Moon by 2030.
China’s approach is much slower but steadier than the US’s more start-stop political funding cycles. If, as many young kids learned, you’ve heard the story of the tortoise and the hare, slow but steady may win the race.
Long-Term Play for India Space Programs
In terms of a near-term Moon landing, India is more of a long-term aspirant.
Historically, India’s initial strategy relied on high-resolution mapping and testing the waters to establish a foundational baseline for global lunar science.
India’s first deep-space mission in 2008, Chandrayaan-1, carried the Moon Impact Probe, which crashed into the southern polar region to collect data. This led to the definitive presence of water molecules (ice) in the lunar soil.
Over a decade later, in 2019, Chandrayaan-2 was an orbiter, the Vikram lander, and the Pragyan rover. The orbiter was a massive success and continues to provide some of the highest-resolution radar and optical imagery of the Moon today. Unfortunately, a software glitch in the final minutes of descent caused the lander to crash.
Most recently, in 2023, the Chandrayaan-3 became the first spacecraft to land on the rugged lunar South Pole region, additionally marking India as the fourth nation overall to achieve a soft moon landing.
Upcoming is the Chandrayaan-4 mission in 2027 or 2028, using a two-launch, split-modular architecture to carry the modules and scoop up 3 kg of lunar soil. In 2029 or later, Chandrayaan-5 will be a collaboration with Japan to target the permanently shadowed region at the South Pole, trying to use a heavy rover to physically quantify the abundance of water ice.
Encouraged by the recent milestones achieved, the Indian government has formally expanded its long-term roadmap. It has established initiatives to construct the Bharatiya Antariksha Station, India’s own modular space station in low Earth orbit.
As it currently stands, India is targeting human boots on the Moon in the 2040s, leveraging the upcoming Gaganyaan human spaceflight program.
Japanese Engineering Showcased in Space
Japan’s lunar program, directed by the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA), is characterized by extreme precision, technical mastery, and large commercial-government partnerships (notably with Toyota).
Rather than building massive rockets entirely alone, Japan has positioned itself as a core partner to international efforts like NASA’s Artemis program, trading world-class engineering for seats on human flights.
Japan has an extensive history with space. In 1990, Japan’s first lunar probe, the Hiten, made them the third nation to send a spacecraft to the Moon. It tested highly complex, fuel-saving gravitational slingshot trajectories.
Then in 2007, the Japanese built one of the most sophisticated lunar orbiters to date, utilizing three distinct spacecraft to construct highly precise topographical and magnetic field maps of the Moon, while capturing the iconic high-definition “Earthrise” videos.
In 2024, Japan made history by becoming the fifth country to softly land on the Moon. The Smart Lander for Investigating Moon’s primary mission was to test a revolutionary vision navigation system, achieving precise landing within 55 meters of its target.
On the horizon is two major initiatives. The LUPEX (lunar polar exploration) mission is projected in 2027 or 2028 which is a joint partnership between JAXA and India’s ISRO. Japan is providing the heavy exploration -*rover and the primary launch vehicle. The goal of this mission is to profile the polar ice to see if life can be supported.
Similarly, Japan is tied to NASA’s Artemis program, specifically through the Toyota Lunar Cruiser. Unlike the open buggy driven during the Apollo missions, it’s a pressurized lunar rover with next-generation hydrogen fuel cell technology. It will allow two astronauts to drive over 10,000 miles or 30-45 days continuously.
In return for this infrastructure, two Japanese astronauts will land on the lunar surface during future Artemis missions, which could make a JAXA explorer the first non-American human to set foot on the Moon.
Russia’s Long-Lived But Underwhelming Space Aspirations
Russia’s space aspirations largely peaked during the Space Race 1.0. Russia was once the Moon-race pioneer via the Luna program, putting the first human in space, but its independent lunar ambitions have stalled since.
The current Luna-Glob program launched as a successor to Soviet-era Luna missions. In 2023, the Luna 25 mission was Russia’s first domestic lunar attempt in nearly 47 years. The goal was to land near a crater in the south polar region to test landing technologies and analyze soil composition. The spaceship entered lunar orbit successfully, but an improper thruster burn caused the spacecraft to crash into the lunar system. This mission truly underscored Russia’s decline in capability.
Now, the next Luna mission, 26, is expected in 2028, with the goal of placing the orbiter in a polar orbit to conduct remote sensing, map water ice distributions, measure cosmic radiation, and solar wind interactions.
Subsequent missions, 27, 28, and 29, will continue surface explorations, develop satellite communications technology, and collect soil samples.
Now, Russia’s future lunar involvement is mostly as a partner in China’s ILRS project rather than an independent effort.
Sanctions, funding constraints, and the Ukraine war have all strained Russia’s deep-space ambitions.
Additional Commercial Entrants Into The Space Market
The landscape of Moon and outer space exploration has undergone a fundamental shift over the past few decades. Commercial companies are no longer just building components for government agencies; they are acting as prime operators providing end-to-end delivery, surface communications, and landing systems.
Much of this activity is anchored by NASA’s Commercial Lunar Payload Services initiative, which is a fixed-price contract model that leverages private industry to establish a steady, low-cost pipeline to the Moon ahead of crewed Artemis missions.
Intuitive Machines is a leading commercial operator in the lunar domain, using its landers to establish communications and delivery routes near the lunar south pole. IM-1 made history in 2024 as the first commercial spacecraft to perform a soft landing on the Moon. Future missions target high-value scientific regions and expanding lunar orbital relay services.
Firefly Aerospace entered the market with its Blue Ghost lander series. In 2025, Blue Ghost Mission 1 executed a fully successful touchdown and surface operation campaign on the Moon. Future missions include targeting the far side of the Moon for landing.
SpaceX’s lunar program is focused on the Starship Human Landing System under a contract with NASA to land the first crewed Artemis missions on the surface in 2028. SpaceX is currently executing uncrewed flight tests to demonstrate propellant transfer in Low Earth Orbit. SpaceX is also designing uncrewed cargo Starship variants capable of delivering up to 100 metric tons of heavy equipment and infrastructure directly to the Moon’s surface.
Blue Origin is developing both robotic and cargo landers and a crewed lander for later Artemis flights. Blue Origin is the second, competing HLS provider to SpaceX, providing redundant access to the Moon. They are expected to execute their Moon landing for Artemis V in 2028-2029.
ispace is designing small-to-medium landers aimed at payload transit, micro-rover development, and international commercial partnerships. Early flight demonstrations in 2025 provided critical operational data for autonomous high-altitude braking and landing algorithms. Next missions are developed to deliver commercial and agency payloads to complex terrain, including far-side regions.
As of 2026, When Will Humans Actually Be Back on the Moon?
In 2024, the projected first to the Moon was the United States via the Artemis program.
In 2026, this trend continues, although the difference between the United States and its competition has shortened significantly.
Now, as the United States program continues to push timelines from 2027 to 2028 and other countries and private organizations make significant milestones, including the recent Chinese catch of the reusable rocket, the race isn’t able to be called as easily.
Some analysts think China could plausibly beat the US given its more consistent funding and schedule discipline.
What are the chances countries or private entities can accelerate their timelines? What if someone decides to simply take a shot, even if they aren’t fully prepared or tested, simply to try to become the first?
As it currently stands, humans will be back on the Moon in the next two years. Will it be sooner? Time will tell.
Those familiar with the aerospace, defense, and space market will know that timelines and milestones often change, usually pushing out further and further. Virtually every announced date so far has slipped, so healthy skepticism is warranted even as the underling momentum is real.
Keep your eyes and ears peeled, as the trip to the Moon will be made soon here, hopefully successfully in a major world first (in over 50 years).
That’s a wrap on this deep dive.
Drew Jackson
Founder & Writer
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