Credit GEP

Demand is easier to achieve in today’s market. It’s time to rethink how the world thinks about supply.

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Reference The Art of Demand for part 1 of this series

Supply is the direct counterpart to demand. As an action, supply means providing or making something available for use. As a noun, supply is the amount or stock of something available.

For business owners, supply directly influences profitability and long-term survival. Understanding supply cost structures, production bottlenecks, and supply dependencies helps businesses price products effectively and spot shifts in supply dynamics. Understanding marginal costs prevents overproduction and eroding profit margins.

Recognizing supply vulnerabilities, for instance, the reliance on single-source raw materials or long lead times, allows companies to instigate plans of action to mitigate risks from geopolitical shocks, logistics disruptions, or raw material shortages.

Price rarely depends on consumer demand alone; it sits at the intersection of supply and demand. Sharp price spikes often stem from sudden supply shifts rather than shifts in consumer preferences and demand. For example, severe weather that impacts crop production or geopolitical conflicts that disrupt oil supply can drive up prices even when demand remains static.

High prices signal to potential market entrants that the market is under-supplied, attracting capital and labor. In contrast, falling prices signal oversupply, prompting sources to reallocate elsewhere as competitors leave the market.

On a macro level, governments and central banks rely on supply analysis to design effective policies and avoid unintended consequences.

Inventors use supply concepts to identify opportunities and protect purchasing power.

No matter where you are in the supply chain or how you interact with supply, understanding it is fundamental because it governs how an economy prices, allocates, and produces resources, goods, and services.

The Law of Supply

In economics, the “Law of Supply” is a fundamental principle (complementary to the “Law of Demand”) that states that, all else equal, as the price of a good or service increases, the quantity supplied increases.

Conversely, as the price decreases, the quantity supplied decreases. Thus, price and quantity supplied have a direct (positive) relationship.

Intuitively, this is understandable. If the price of hot dogs increases (generally due to higher demand), hot dog suppliers will want to supply more to earn more revenue. Alternatively, new suppliers may enter the market to augment existing supply.

How do they know the Law of Supply holds in most/all scenarios?

Producers are primarily driven by profit incentives and cost structure dynamics.

Higher market prices mean higher potential revenue per unit sold. If production costs remain constant, a higher selling price increases profit margins and incentivizes suppliers to expand production.

Producing additional units in the short term often becomes progressively more expensive due to diminishing marginal returns (e.g., paying workers overtime, running machinery past optimal capacity with minimal downtime). Higher prices often cover these increased costs, making the extra supply profitable.

As market prices for a good or service rise, outside companies are attracted to the industry by the prospect of above-average profits, adding to total market supply over the long term.

For existing market suppliers, understanding existing capacity metrics and scalability is crucial to future planning. If prices increase, what is your business’s capacity to create incremental supply?

For instance, if the price of a haircut increased, what is a barbershop’s capacity to scale? Do they need additional square footage? Do they need additional headcount? Do they need additional equipment?

If the price were to decrease, what is your business’s capacity to flex and slow down on supply?

In these circumstances, you can cut variable costs to some extent, whereas operating expenses are generally harder to reduce. You can buy fewer inputs for your bakery (less flour and chocolate chips), but you can’t easily get out of your 12-month lease.

For business owners, identifying your actual supply curve and recognizing and addressing production bottlenecks early can enable quick action and faster scaling.

Price Driven Supply Constraints

How easily does supply respond to price changes?

Economists have studied this concept for years and developed the price elasticity metric, which measures how sensitive the quantity supplied of a good or service is to a change in its price.

The Law of Supply tells us the direction of a producer’s response (if price goes up, quantity supplied goes up); elasticity tells us the magnitude—how much quantity supplied changes when price moves.

Mathematically, price elasticity of supply is calculated as the percentage change in quantity supplied divided by the percentage change in price. Because price and quantity supplied move in the same direction, price elasticity of supply is almost always positive.

The value of the price elasticity of supply (“PES”) unveils secrets about market dynamics:

• If PES = 0: Quantity supplied cannot change at all, regardless of price changes. For example, the supply of stadium tickets does not change as the price increases.

• If PES < 1: Quantity supplied changes by a smaller percentage than the price changes. For example, as the price of electricity increases, the supply of electricity increases (but by a smaller percentage than the price increase, as there is a lag in creating new electricity supply).

• If PES = 1: Quantity supplied changes by the exact same percentage as the price change.

• If PES > 1: Quantity supplied changes by a larger percentage than the price change. For example, as the price of mass-produced manufactured goods increases, the quantity supplied increases by more (as a % basis) than the price increased.

• If PES = Infinity: Producers will supply an infinite quantity at a specific price, but zero at any lower price. For example, digital software downloads have near-zero marginal reproduction cost.

Each product and service exhibits a different, unique elasticity. Why are some goods elastic while others are inelastic?

Four primary factors dictate how quickly suppliers can ramp production up or down: time horizon, availability of inputs and resources, space capacity and excess inventories, and flexibility and ease of mobility.

In the immediate term, and often in the short term, supply is almost fixed. A farmer bringing tomatoes to his distributor today cannot immediately supply more tomatoes if the market price doubles at 9 am. In the short run, plant capacity is fixed (square footage is fixed), but firms can increase labor or raw materials. In the long run, firms can build new factories, hire workers, and enter or leave the industry, making supply significantly more elastic.

If production relies on rare inputs (e.g., uranium, rare earth minerals), supply is more inelastic. If inputs are generic (e.g., flour, paper, stainless steel), supply is more elastic.

A factory operating at 50% capacity with stockpiled inventory can quickly scale output when prices rise (PES > 1). A plant running at 100% capacity faces a bottleneck (PES < 1).

If production processes can easily shift between goods (e.g., a bakery switching between baking bread and pastries based on price), supply is highly elastic.

If, if, if, if.

Each supply setup, each business, every situation is unique. To succeed and accurately predict supply dynamics, you must understand each of these aspects (and more).

Factors Shifting Supply

Two major types of factors cause the quantity of a good or service in the market to fluctuate. First, the quantity supplied moves along the supply curve. This is simply based on a price change, which subsequently increases or decreases supply. In this case, the supply curve has not moved; the equilibrium point between supply and demand has simply moved along the curve.

Second, the supply curve itself can shift.

What forces are causing the supply curve to shift?

• Changes in Input Prices: As production costs rise because of raw materials, labor, energy, equipment, rent, or other factors, supply is directly affected. As input costs rise, the supply curve shifts to the left (higher costs reduce profits and encourage lower output).

• Technological Advances: Improvements in production processes, machinery, or software increase efficiency, shifting the supply curve to the right.

• Government Policies: Interventions by local, national, or international authorities directly alter production economies. For instance, subsidies shift the supply curve right. Per-unit taxes shift the supply curve to the left.

• Producer Expectations About Future Prices: Suppliers adjust current production based on anticipated market conditions. Higher expected future prices shift supply left (holding back inventory to sell at higher predicted prices tomorrow).

• Number of Sellers in the Market: As the number of sellers in a market increases because new competitors enter the industry, total market capacity rises and supply shifts right.

• Prices of Related Goods in Production: Increasing output for a primary good naturally boosts the supply of its byproduct. For example, increasing beef production to rebuild national herd counts automatically shifts the leather supply curve to the right.

• Natural & External Conditions: Unforeseen physical or environmental disruptions outside a firm’s direct operational control, including weather, disaster, war, pandemics, and more.

For everyday business operators, macroeconomic factors and others, including input inflation, labor market shifts, supply chain disruptions, and technological breakthroughs, can redefine unit economics overnight.

Thus, for each business owner, building supply and supply chain resilience through supplier diversification, technology-driven productivity gains, and hedging strategies enables greater stability and predictability.

Without measures to mitigate supply shocks, operators are at the mercy of broader market conditions. By building intentional safeguards to reduce supply risks, proactive business owners can plan more easily for the future and support long-term success.

Unique Supply Scenarios Every Operator Should Know

Every situation presents its own operational constraints and variables to consider. No true one-size-fits-all approach exists for supply.

Scenarios share commonalities that lead to the law of supply, supply curves, and elasticity principles, but many factors can still influence supply outcomes.

For instance, in a monopoly scenario, a single seller faces high barriers to entry. Traditionally, in a competitive market, total supply depends mainly on price (i.e., each price corresponds to a unique total quantity supplied).

In a monopoly, however, no single supply curve exists. To sell an additional unit, a monopolist must lower the price on all units sold. Depending on the price elasticity of demand, a monopolist can supply the same quantity at different prices or different quantities at the same price.

In an oligopoly, a few dominant firms (e.g., Boeing and Airbus) constitute the entire market supply. Each firm’s supply decision depends directly on its rivals’ anticipated reactions.

Firms choose output strategically:

• According to Cournot: Firms simultaneously choose quantities, arriving at a Nash equilibrium where total market supply is higher than the monopoly quantity but lower than perfect competition.

• According to Bertrand: Firms compete on price, driving prices down to approach perfectly competitive pricing outcomes (especially if products are similar/exactly similar)

• According to the Cartel Model: Firms explicitly (or implicitly) collude to act as a single monopoly to restrict overall supply and maximize joint profits.

Regardless of the supply dynamics, business operators must position their businesses to surpass commodity-like pricing competition through strategic supply differentiation, diversification, or cost leadership.

Often, supply and sales are two sides of the coin, separated and distinct functions that rarely, if ever, talk with one another. Combining operational capacity metrics with product differentiation strategy and sales positioning can help protect profit margins against market-wide supply swings.

Understanding supply dynamics, predicting future conditions, and preparing for optimal and sub-optimal scenarios increases a business’s chance of success (from a supply angle) and is critical in the 21st century.

Traditionally, economics focused heavily on demand because it was difficult to predict, attract, and retain. Now, in the 21st century, demand seems widespread and easier to attain.

Supply to meet demand is much harder to come by, especially supply that can generate strong margins given current demand conditions.

These factors, and many more, make supply a critical science for every business owner to understand.

That’s a wrap on this deep dive.

Drew Jackson

Founder & Writer

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Hi friends 👋,

Happy Sunday morning and welcome back to our 115th edition of The Sunday Morning Newsletter!

Reading Time: 5 minutes of curated insights

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#1: How to Know If You’re Wrong

Sy Boles - Harvard Gazette

How do we know when we’re wrong? How do we identify our own errors?

Often, we’re most aware of our own issues. Sometimes, however, we aren’t. No one’s opinions, beliefs, and perceived “facts” are always accurate. The trouble is figuring out exactly where we are wrong. What do we do if we can’t recognize our own errors?

One philosopher’s opinion on this process is understanding our own limits. If we find reasonable doubts about whether we’re competent to form good beliefs, that gives us room to admit we might be wrong and to lower our confidence in our views.

One of the best ways to understand your blind spots is to engage with information, people, and perspectives that challenge your current viewpoints. Maybe you formed your opinion on an unrepresentative sample of available evidence and shouldn’t consider your view as properly informed.

How do we cultivate the capacity to acknowledge we’re wrong? Engaging with rival ideas that other people have put forward. We should push to understand the complete context of the ideas and concepts we’re engaging with.

Learning how others think shouldn’t always change our minds, but it’s an important exercise to see an argument from all sides and understand why that perspective is compelling.

#2: Imposing Sanctions to Protect Americans from Intellectual Property Theft

The U.S. Department of State

This week, the Department of State announced sanctions on 5 entities under the Protecting American Intellectual Property Act (PAIPA) for stealing trade secrets.

For background, the PAIPA was signed into law in 2023, establishing a statutory authority that mandates sanctions against certain foreign persons and entities who have engaged in, or benefited from, significant theft of trade secrets. From the writer:

The power and integrity of U.S. sanctions programs derive not only from the U.S. government’s ability to designate and add persons to sanctions lists but also from its willingness to remove persons from such lists consistent with the law. The ultimate goal of sanctions is not to punish, but to bring about a positive change in behavior.

In the era of technology and AI, the re-creation of disclosed intellectual property from foreign nations has continued to increase. This has driven the development of intellectual property protection and compliance technologies, along with enforcement actions and other regulatory measures to mitigate and prevent the effects of intellectual property encroachment.

#3: 25 Years of Solar Energy, Here’s What We’ve Learned

Ben Zook - Solar Power World

The residential solar industry has been through many phases over the years. Early on, budgets were tight, the sales team was young and inexperienced, and the market was still nascent.

Over the next 25 years, the industry has weathered significant ups and downs, major technological advancements, and shifting economic landscapes. Despite major technological improvements, developments in consumer education and sales processes have significantly driven adoption.

Installers now match systems more accurately to customer needs while staying fully transparent about potential limitations or expectations. For these installers and sales reps, education shouldn’t stop with a certification or degree. Maintaining a mindset of continuous learning helps professionals stay flexible as supply, technology, and consumer preferences change.

The principles of buy nice or buy twice apply directly to solar panels, with many consumers splurging for long-term guarantees and benefits.

#4: The First Look at Top-Secret Chinese Space Plane

Harry Baker - Live Science

A new U.S. intelligence agency report has released the first clear photograph of China’s mysterious space plane orbiting Earth. This top-secret vehicle appears similar to the American version and provides more detail about China’s space program.

This plane has been in action for an estimated 6 years. During this time, the vehicle has made headlines after deploying various unidentified objects in low Earth orbit. As a result, governments, private companies, and researchers have closely monitored its progress and developments.

So far, no clear pictures of the plane have been disclosed to the public—suggesting the government has had access to additional intelligence for some time. China has also never shared photos of the vehicle or revealed more about its design.

Intelligence suggests China has two active spaceplane designs, and it is unclear which version this plane is.

For the regular folk, the implications are unclear. Some experts argue that the next world war or big global conflict will have space-based weaponry play a critical role.

#5: World to Add Less Clean Energy Capacity this Year

Sudarshan Varadhan - Reuters

In a new analysis, researchers estimate that the world will add less clean energy capacity in 2026 for the first time in 5 years.

Since 2021, solar and wind capacity growth has accelerated each year. Clean power installations, including hydropower, solar, wind, and more, have surged to represent half of the world’s power capacity.

Worldwide, under the Paris Agreement and other climate agreements, governments have pledged to boost clean energy use to ensure a reliable domestic power supply and cut costs.

Recently, however, renewables deployment in China has slowed because the grid often curtails or rejects clean power when it hits its limits. A main cause of the slowdown is the mismatch between generation capacity and the capacity to distribute and transmit electricity. Distribution and transmission infrastructure is often legacy, with decades-old equipment that struggles to keep pace with current supply and demand.

To be clear, clean energy capacity is increasing in other parts of the world, but this slowdown in China, given its historical demand and market size, will overshadow those increases on a global scale.

Despite this, renewable energy additions remain critical in reducing global emissions and counteracting the effects of climate change. Today, urgent cuts to carbon emissions are necessary, alongside the switch to renewable energy.

That’s a wrap on this week’s roundup.

Drew Jackson

Founder & Writer

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• Next Deep Dive: The Science of Supply - November 11th, 2026

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Hi friends 👋,

Happy Sunday morning and welcome back to our 114th edition of The Sunday Morning Newsletter!

Reading Time: 5 minutes of curated insights

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#1: Industry Standard Tools

Every hobby has its own set of tools, guides, products, and other resources that help people produce the highest-quality output possible. As the Company writes:

Every trade has a small number of items so entrenched that they’ve become the de facto tool that nearly everyone in that trade uses.

This website aggregates each industry and hobby, then lets qualified users vote to determine what is truly an essential item for that industry.

Ask the internet what to buy and the answers are incredibly varied. Many articles and blogs with affiliate links and more. This knowledge is real, but its value lies with people and is lost every time it isn’t aggregated or written down.

This register gives everyone a place to write these things down. It is not a buying guide and does not rank which tool is best. It records which tools the trades actually reach for and actually use, which is arguably the more important fact.

This website is independent, with no manufacturer paying to appear, rank, or otherwise. Everything is independent, verified, voted on by real people, and valuable.

Like some of the smartest of us have said, if I’m going to be misled, I’d much rather be misled by the people than by anyone else.

#2: What If America Went Completely Dark?

Christopher Cox - The New York Times

America’s electrical grid is much more fragile than we would imagine. And mainstream media isn’t talking about it!

FERC, the governing body for electrical utilities in the United States, conducted an analysis to identify weak points in the nation’s electrical system. The electrical grid is an incredibly complex machine. It was created without a master plan and is subject to state, local, and federal laws.

Three major grids exist: the Western, Eastern, and Texas Interconnections. Within each region, thousands of utilities generate and distribute power.

In the recent FERC analysis, they modeled the cascading effects of knocking out the most critical substations in each interconnection. These are where multiple high-voltage lines come together. They found a crazy stat: if you knock out just nine total substations, you can black out the entire United States.

How do we solve this?

Decentralized energy access, generally provided by renewable energy, gives businesses and consumers flexible access and, when combined with batteries, can buffer these risks.

#3: When Giving Up Teaches You More Than Persevering Ever Could

Mario I Juarez-Garcia - Psyche

Mario starts with a powerful quote I want to highlight:

Grit is all well and good, but sometimes abandoning your goals can be crucial to discovering who you are.

For some, it’s easy to give up on your goals—in those cases, were they ever really real?

For others, abandoning goals can be especially difficult. We’re surrounded by stories of grit, determination, and success. No one ever wants to be labeled as a “loser” or a “quitter.”

Honoring our past efforts to build commitment helps us resist the temptation to quit and can push us toward long-term goals. We should always start long-term projects with the strong belief that they will succeed, despite our doubts or history of failures. Favorable circumstances can overcome these factors.

In real life, abandoning goals can be crucial to discovering who we are. The author describes this as the exploratory value of giving up. In these cases, quitting can reveal skills, limitations, and passions we could not have known before failure.

In other cases, we can learn about our lives generally from failure. Failure can help us acknowledge that the conditions we are in are not ideal for pursuing these goals. In these cases, the solution may be to change ourselves. Alternatively, it may mean changing the environment around us.

Long story short, don’t be afraid of failure or giving up. Be purposeful in these times, and learn and grow into the next experience.

#4: New Simulations of the Universe

Katrina Miller - The New York Times

Recently, researchers released a large set of visualizations detailing one of the most in-depth simulations of what happened at the dawn of our universe.

This imagery tracks the period between 50M and 2B years after the Big Bang and how it progressed over time.

NASA’s James Webb Space Telescope has allowed astronomers to peer further into cosmic time than ever before. This takes us back to when the first stars and galaxies were born.

A written description would showcase how the universe was a mix of electrons and nuclei following the Big Bang. As it expanded throughout what’s now the known universe, it cooled and formed hydrogen and helium gas. The first stars appeared around 100M years after the Big Bang.

This simulation program took around a year to run on a supercomputer located at Oak Ridge National Laboratory. It helped deliver a suite of information about the conditions of the early universe, including the distribution of dark matter and gas over time.

So what? First, if you’re like me, you’re interested in these simulations of the universe and want to understand more about the broader world we live in. Secondly, it’s interesting to see how our scientific knowledge continues to expand and progress over time. Where will we be in 5 years? 10? 50? 1000?

#5: Everything to Know About El Niño

Judson Jones, Chico Harlan and Raymond Zhong - The New York Times

If you don’t know it or are only familiar with the name, El Niño is a natural climate pattern driven by unusual warming of the Pacific Ocean. These effects can shift the weather systems worldwide for months or even years at a time.

Usually, these effects reach full strength by December each year, appearing at irregular intervals with unique dynamics each time. Unfortunately, you don’t just have to live by the Pacific Ocean to be affected; scientists predict this year will show effects globally.

These researchers and writers put together an FAQ guide to help folks understand what they need to know heading into the winter months (here in the Northern Hemisphere). They can help you understand how strong it will be in your area and how you can prepare.

It’s definitely worth reviewing to understand what you may or may not be getting yourself into in the coming months.

That’s a wrap on this week’s roundup.

Drew Jackson

Founder & Writer

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• Next Deep Dive: The Science of Supply - November 11th, 2026

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© 2026 Brainwaves. All rights reserved.

Credit Southern Living

Demand is a complicated art that can make or break a business. Understanding its intricacies can be the difference between success and failure.

Reading Time: 11 minutes for full analysis + key takeaways highlighted throughout

Key Question: How can you better understand demand to maximize your chances of success in business?

My Take: Demand is one of the simplest economic principles, yet it is often one of the most critical and often misunderstood aspects of business success. For a business, demand drivers can push it higher or cause contractions, shaping short- and long-term strategy. Importantly, demand almost always behaves in a standard way, except for free goods and Veblen goods. These dynamics and more can be the decider between success, mediocrity, and failure.

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I find collections of objects fascinating.

Almost everyone in my life collects things of various shapes, forms, costs, and more.

I know people who collect stamps, coins, Hot Wheels cars, nativity sets, cars, Legos, Funko Pops, and much more. From everyday objects to eccentric choices, collections are an important way for people to showcase their passions, have a creative outlet, and otherwise brag to the neighborhood Joneses.

Personally, I collect cool shoes under <$50. I’ve got over 50 pairs of shoes to my name, many of which are unique and interesting (and also under $50,000). Shoes have a certain level of practicality compared to other collections I’ve witnessed.

I wouldn’t go so far as to say I’m addicted to buying shoes, but I’m definitely a high-volume consumer. I’m always looking for the next deal, the next drop, the next discount.

Some days, I buy a pair of shoes as a reward for hitting a milestone in my life. On others, they’re purchased opportunistically (you can’t afford to), and on others they’re purchased just cause I can.

In other words, my demand for shoes, although it fluctuates often, is relatively high.

On the surface, demand is an incredibly simple topic (the demand for a real estate agent is the number of people using that agent to find houses). Within business, demand is one of the most critical determinants of success; if people don’t like your product/service and demand it, you will quickly go out of business.

Yet, even in a close-knit business conversation, the concept of demand isn’t fully understood or clearly laid out.

Demand is one half of the essential economic yin-yang between supply and demand, without which our economy and planet as we know it would likely struggle to thrive as it does.

It underpins consumer behavior, business success, cultures, trends, fads, politics, social situations, and societies, and it penetrates almost every facet of human life. As such, fully grasping the intricacies of demand can pay dividends throughout your entire life.

Holistic Demand

In Econ 101, the first lesson covers the two most critical parts of any economy: supply and demand. Often that’s accompanied by a graphical representation like the one below.

Credit Outlier

At a very basic level, demand is a consumer’s desire to purchase a good or service. This is combined with their willingness and financial ability to pay for the good or service at a given price.

Desire alone isn’t demand from an economic perspective; it also requires purchasing power. I may desire a Ferrari, but if I don’t have the purchasing power, I don’t have demand (from an economic perspective).

Interestingly enough, most people don’t know what they want until they see it in the context of other deals and offers. Dan Ariely, in his book Predictably Irrational, notes this interesting example:

High-priced entrees on the menu boost revenue for the restaurant—even if no one buys them. Why? Because even though people generally won’t buy the most expensive dish on the menu, they will order the second most expensive dish.

One of our most common ways of evaluating, which cuts right to the heart of demand dynamics, is in relation to other comparable products or services. This applies to cars, jobs, dating, therapists, lawn care providers, and many other goods and services.

Outside of traditional economics, demand is a core structural framework spanning psychology, engineering, law, biology, and systems theory. In these contexts, demand represents a constraint, load, requirement, or pressure exerted on a system. For instance, in psychology, environmental requirements (e.g., at a job, this would be workload) demand cognitive energy and resources, increasing the risk of burnout.

Returning to an economic context, demand originates from the combination of human needs, preferences, and economic capacity. Humans consistently have unmet needs and desires for utility, comfort, survival, happiness, status, problem-solving, and more. For those with purchasing power (disposable income or ability to buy on credit), this enables a purchase.

Ultimately, demand is driven by a perceived value—the benefit a buyer expects to receive relative to the price. This is the buyer’s net outcome, and it often drives the decision to purchase or acquire the good or service.

The world is consistently changing. Consumer preferences constantly shift with the latest trends; businesses always chase the next dollar; everything is in constant transition.

Demand drivers change in a similar fashion, causing repercussions throughout the economy. Luckily, demand moves in only two directions: it either increases or decreases.

As shown in the graph below, when demand increases, the demand curve shifts to the right (up) from D1 (the original curve) to D2 (the new curve). Based on economic theory, assuming all other factors remain equal, this leads to higher prices and higher quantity sold. This signals to the market that capital and labor should flow into the industry to build additional capacity to meet demand.

Similarly, when demand decreases, the demand curve shifts to the left (down). Under the same logic, this will lead to a decrease in price and a decrease in quantity sold. This signals contracting margins, forcing consolidation, layoffs, or capital reallocation to other sectors.

Credit Outlier

Hundreds of factors can increase demand. Often, these are segmented into 5 key areas that depict the most common occurrences of economic demand increases:

• Rising incomes: Buyers have more disposable income for products and services

• Shifts in consumer preferences: Positive trends, virality leading to adoption, favorable news, and more social influences driving increased demand

• Prices of related goods: Price increases for substitute goods (e.g., the price of the generic coffee bean increases, leading to the relative price of the branded coffee bean feeling “less expensive”, leading to increased demand for the branded coffee bean) or price drops for complementary goods (e.g., the price of peanut butter goes down so the sales of jelly go up as people buy more peanut butter and want more jelly to go with it)

• Demographic growth: Growing populations lead naturally to increased demand

• Future expectations: Anticipation of higher future prices or upcoming shortages leading to preemptive buying (showcased throughout the start of the COVID-19 pandemic)

In a similar vein, consumer demand often decreases for several reasons. Conversely, consumer demand can decrease when incomes decline, tastes change negatively, substitutes become cheaper, demographics shift, or negative sentiment about the future rises.

The Extremes of Demand Dynamics

For companies, demand often signals success. Successful companies garner additional demand, which increases their success and perpetuates the feedback loop.

Companies with no demand signal a complete lack of value and require a significant pivot to reframe the value proposition or to exit the market.

Limited or low demand signals a niche market, poor market fit, or an overpriced offering. To succeed in this stage, companies can optimize cost structures, target specialized segments, or discount to clear volume.

Companies with medium demand showcase stable market equilibrium with steady, predictable consumption patterns. This enables focusing on brand differentiation, customer retention, and steady operational efficiency.

High demand indicates strong market fit, scarcity, or an underpriced product. Companies in this stage can increase production capacity, expand margins using price increases, and defend against new entrants.

In most circumstances, demand works exactly as described above. In these cases, demand is driven by a combination of standard price factors and non-price factors. A change in the price of the good or service causes a movement along the existing demand curve (a change in quantity demanded), whereas non-price factors shift the entire demand curve left or right.

Price often acts as an original anchor for goods and services. Initial prices are often arbitrary, but once established in our minds, they affect present and future prices. Once you pay a certain price for a product, you judge your willingness to pay for other items in the same product category relative to that first price.

In this way, price and our first decisions in each category resonate and reverberate over a long tail of additional decisions.

Outside of price, there are 5 major factors that directly shift overall consumer demand for a good or service:

1. Consumer Income: For normal goods, demand increases as consumer income rises (e.g., organic produce, new cars). For inferior goods, demand decreases as income rises and demand increases as income decreases.

2. The Prices of Related Goods: If the price of a substitute increases, the demand for the original good increases (e.g., an increase in tea prices leads to increased coffee demand). If the price of a complement increases, demand for the original good falls (e.g., higher prices for peanut butter reduce the demand for jelly)

3. Consumer Tastes & Preferences: Shifts based on trends, health considerations, marketing, seasonal factors, or social changes

4. Consumer Expectations: If consumers expect prices to rise soon, current demand increases as people buy early. If consumers expect their income to rise soon, it encourages immediate spending.

5. Market Demographics: An expansion in population size, demographic shifts (e.g., an aging population), or opening a product to new geographical markets increase market demand

One interesting example of a demand driver is behavior herding. Dan uses the analogy of a restaurant, which is a perfect example of this:

You’re walking past a restaurant, and you see two people standing in line, waiting to get in. “This must be a good restaurant,” you think to yourself. “People are standing in line.” So you stand behind these people. Another person walks by. He sees three people standing in line and thinks, “this must be a fantastic restaurant,” and joins the line. Others join.

Behavior herding happens when we assume something is good (or bad) based on other people’s previous behavior and model our actions after it.

Similarly, we can do this to ourselves. We often judge something as good or bad based on our own past behavior (we are the first person in line at the restaurant, then we begin to line up behind ourselves every time we return).

Outside the vast majority of “normal” circumstances described above, a few cases suspend traditional demand expectations, usually on both ends of the paradigm: free or almost free goods and Veblen Goods.

FREE!

Things we would never consider purchasing become much more attractive when they’re free. This dynamic creates unusual comparisons. When you compare a free item to another item (not free), the “free” dynamic can lead to poor decisions.

Every transaction has an upside and a downside, but when something is free, we forget the downside. Free goods trigger such an emotional response that we perceive what we are being offered as far more valuable than it really is. Why? It’s because humans are intrinsically afraid of loss. When we acquire free items, there is no possibility of loss.

Ironically, the difference between one cent and two cents is small. But the difference between one cent and free is massive. We get excited when something is free, which can lead us to make decisions that aren’t in our best interests.

Thus, the theory of demand holds solid, except when we’re dealing with the price of zero (free). When price isn’t part of the exchange (the transfer of goods and services from one person to another), social norms become entangled.

In contrast to free goods, Veblen goods are products or services (often deemed “luxury”) for which demand increases as price increases.

For regular goods, as the price increases, demand suffers as consumers move elsewhere. Veblen goods exhibit the opposite characteristics, contrary to intuition. Often, the higher prices of Veblen goods make them desirable as a status symbol or provide other non-monetary benefits (happiness, pride, status, etc.).

Veblen goods come in many forms. For instance, the demand for high-end cars has never been higher. In many cases, the more expensive the vehicle, the more desirable it becomes as a status symbol.

Luxury handbags, shoes, clothing, and other accessories exhibit exclusivity and prestige. Larger jewelry carat sizes and higher quality diamonds command exponentially higher prices and signal wealth. Rare, one-of-a-kind antique furniture and collectibles see demand rise exponentially as prices increase.

Dan Ariely highlights another interesting factor of demand: to make something coveted, make it harder to attain.

It’s easy to think that in any circumstance, the solution is more demand. Unfortunately, more demand is not always better. While growing demand generally signals economic health and business growth, excessive or unmanageable demand creates severe friction.

When demand across an economy grows faster than aggregate supply can expand, prices rise rapidly. Consumers bid up prices for scarce goods and services, eroding purchasing power.

When individual businesses encounter demand beyond their maximum production capacity, lead times surge, inventory runs out, and customer satisfaction tanks. Demand growth for physical commodities can lead to over-exploitation of natural resources (e.g., lumber shortages leading to aggressive deforestation), environmental degradation, and local infrastructure impacts (e.g., increased congestion).

For small- and medium-sized businesses, scaling rapidly to meet unexpected demand can dilute product quality, strain workforce capacity, and increase operational error rates.

The Art of Demand

Demand is an art. It’s not something you can easily “solve for.”

Some strategies are more likely to increase demand than others: lowering prices, offering superior products for the price, providing excellent customer service, solving a real pain point, and more. However, many methods are tried-and-failed approaches to increasing demand.

Demand is such a simple topic, yet it’s so critical to a business’s success. Entire business functions (sales, business development, customer service, customer success, partnerships, etc.) have been formed purely to chase and increase demand.

Understanding the art of demand is crucial to business success.

P.S. See part 2 out in two weeks: The Science of Supply

That’s a wrap on this deep dive.

Drew Jackson

Founder & Writer

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• Next Deep Dive: The Science of Supply - November 11th, 2026

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Hi friends 👋,

Happy Sunday morning and welcome back to our 113th edition of The Sunday Morning Newsletter!

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#1: Scientists Turn Eggshells into Defense Against Space Debris

Eric Ralls - Earth

Over the last few decades, the methodology to prevent impacts from space debris has been to have a thin sheet of aluminum at the front of the spacecraft, with a gap behind it.

This worked for most space debris for a time, but as the amount of space debris has exponentially increased, these methods are due for a change. Larger fragments pose a much greater challenge.

Tens of thousands, if not hundreds or millions, of debris pieces orbit in space. This is an incredibly difficult problem, and no one has a concrete solution yet.

A recent innovation proposes using aluminum eggshell concepts to prevent this debris. Testing revealed the narrow end of the egg design has the best prevention capabilities.

Early signs show strong traction; however, the new design panels have not undergone extensive impact testing.

If proven, these could provide a new layer of defense against oncoming space objects, ensuring additional space viability and signaling potential future improvements are still to come.

#2: Recognizing the Transformative Impact of Intellectual Property

David Korn - Phrma

In the biopharmaceutical industry, intellectual property is a key driver of research and development for the next generation of treatments and cures.

The scale of this impact is significant:

• Biopharmaceutical companies directly support 350k+ manufacturing jobs

• 1.5k+ domestic manufacturing facilities in the U.S. are producing the medicines patients rely on

• $500B+ in new investments are committed to fund future U.S. biopharmaceutical manufacturing and infrastructure

According to the U.S. Patent and Trademark Office, IP-intensive industries accounted for $11.4T in GDP in 2024. They supported nearly 66M American jobs, showcasing the extent to which intellectual property supports and underpins the economy.

As such, Congress should continue protecting intellectual property and prioritize future medical innovation and U.S. manufacturing investment.

#3: Everything Feels So Expensive

Natasha Sarin - The New York Times

The evidence of an affordability crisis surrounds us in every facet of life. Gas is more expensive, food costs are rising, travel is incredibly prohibitive, education bills are at all-time highs, and more.

Affordability was a key issue in the 2024 election and it is likely to be a key issue during the 2026 midterms as well.

Interestingly, some economists argue otherwise. The key argument is that yes, prices have risen over the last few years, but wages have generally increased faster. According to these definitions, America has been more affordable than at any time in its history.

This author argues that both parties and viewpoints aren’t exactly accurate. “The question is not whether our wages are outpacing inflation, but whether we have enough confidence in our economic futures to trust that we can afford the lives we expect for ourselves and our families — and that we can survive whatever comes. Americans are facing a financial crisis all right, but it’s not just affordability. We’re facing a crisis of economic security, and it’s getting worse.”

Okay, but how does something like this get solved?

Fortunately or unfortunately, the answer lies in the politicians. Each politician has a large incentive to do something, to lower prices, to freeze rent, to cap credit card interest rates, or to ban the institutional ownership of homes.

We, as citizens, must push our elected officials to do better each day and represent our positions as accurately as possible.

#4: IP Work That Should Happen At Every Startup

Matthew L. Cutler - Mondaq

During a fundraise and immediately after, companies plan for all manner of strategic decisions. Some of which include building out sales, product, marketing, finance, and other departments.

Occasionally on that list, but an item that is incredibly important and often overlooked, is the concept of intellectual property protections.

A fundraise requires three key intellectual property actions:

• Confirm the company owns the intellectual property it just sold to investors

• Protect the product and brand the new money is about to put into the market

• Install a system so IP protection becomes automated and ingrained

As the company raises funds, its profile increases. It continues to gain customers, push products, and spend marketing dollars to increase awareness.

During these phases, it is critical that intellectual property not be the reason why the company fails and struggles to grow.

#5: MIT Study Pushes Back on One of the Biggest Solar Energy Myths

Mark Cowley

Solar energy only makes up around 11% of the total U.S. electricity supply in 2023.

One longstanding argument against solar, specifically regarding utility-scale solar farms, is that they will result in higher bills for customers.

A recent MIT study proved that this argument wasn’t supported by data. The study evaluated how much energy bills increased for consumers after various forms of renewable energy were connected.

The study found that large-scale solar farms did not increase bills, and in fact, decreased them slightly on average. Why? It’s quite unknown, but researchers suggested that this decrease in costs could be due to lack of needing to pump or transport raw fuel, which helps reduce total operational and maintenance costs.

In this way, and in many others, solar continues to shine as one of the standout energy sources in the 21st century as individuals, businesses, and countries push to upgrade existing energy infrastructure.

That’s a wrap on this week’s roundup.

Drew Jackson

Founder & Writer

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Hi friends 👋,

Happy Sunday morning and welcome back to our 112th edition of The Sunday Morning Newsletter!

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#1: Leaders Need Scenario Planning to Survive

Daniel W. Rasmus - Chief Learning Officer

The world we live in, and its future, is incredibly uncertain, with a myriad of possibilities ahead of us. Leadership has often neglected this fact throughout history, positioning the background conditions of laws, democracy, protection, public trust, climate stability, reliable institutions, and more as facts of life—not things that need to be maintained and made prosperous.

Even now, most leadership programs still teach people how to manage what’s going on right now as well as possible. Manage current crises, solve problems, and teach people what they need to do now. Unfortunately, this is reactive leadership, and the world needs more proactive leadership today.

These skills matter—don’t get me wrong—but what matters most is understanding how the underlying world is changing, adapting with that change, and looking ahead to how today’s world may differ from tomorrow’s.

The solution? Scenario planning is a foundational leadership skill that should be more commonplace, rather than reserved for occasional yearly planning sessions or siloed in one position. Rasmus says it well:

Traditional scenario planning often begins by distinguishing relatively predetermined forces from critical uncertainties. Demographics, infrastructure cycles, capital intensity, regulatory trajectories and technological diffusion have often served as relatively durable drivers around which scenarios could be constructed. The method still has value. But leaders must now recognize that many forces once treated as durable social infrastructure have proven more fragile than assumed.

If you are a leader, invest in yourself and learn how to be more future-oriented. If you’re a follower, encourage leaders around you to look to the future and understand scenarios of what may be coming.

#2: Elon Musk’s Risk Philosophy

Guillermo Flor - LinkedIn

“Failure is irrelevant unless it is catastrophic.”

What would our world look like if we all held this mindset?

In creating Tesla, SpaceX, and other ventures, Elon has embedded this idea throughout his enterprises, to great success.

This contrasts best with SpaceX’s approach to rocketship building compared to historic examples. At SpaceX, the philosophy is much more fail fast, figure out what doesn’t work, then iterate and do it better next time. Historically, however, the philosophy was more like: we need to plan, strategize, and double-check everything because we only get one chance, so it needs to be good.

Most founders take this approach—they think one failure proves they aren’t a good founder. Those who get back up, and keep getting back up, succeed in the long run.

Knowing the difference between a wound and a fatal blow is critical.

#3: Google & Constellation Announce Landmark Agreement

Constellation Energy

Google and Constellation Energy announced last week a long-term partnership to create 890 MW of new, reliable nuclear capacity for the grid. For reference, this equates to around ~3-4 full-scale nuclear reactors.

Over the next 20 years, the agreement will enable investments in new equipment and technology at 11 Constellation-owned nuclear units in the Northeast.

Additionally, this agreement supports roughly 4,000 existing jobs and creates over 7,000 new construction jobs during the building period, with over $4B in investment.

Underpinning this agreement is strong demand from manufacturing, industrial electrification, and digital infrastructure, which is accelerating the need for energy (clean energy) across the United States and the broader globe.

This isn’t the first time a large technology provider has partnered with a utility provider to secure access to future energy, but it’s one of the largest partnerships to date.

Electricity costs are already rising with this demand, and those looking to the future are preparing for the inevitable.

#4: Why Your Grocery Bill Will Get Worse

Kathleen Kingsbury & Peter R. Orszag - The New York Times

In a new paper, Peter Orszag argued that geopolitically driven supply shocks, rather than demand fluctuations, best explain economic volatility.

This exhibits itself in a few ways. For instance, the current debt-financed AI boom could pose economic risks to the United States and the broader world, potentially disrupting major markets if it crashes.

Given the current state of the world, the Federal Reserve is likely to raise rates further, signaling higher grocery prices.

At the same time, despite the recent trend toward nearshoring and onshoring, the United States’ technology infrastructure and growth largely depend on Taiwan.

For decades, the United States expanded globalization, increasing the diversity of sourcing goods and services. Now, the global economy is fracturing. We’ve built tremendous supply chains with multiple single points of failure, all threatening to collapse at any moment.

Any variation in economic or business activity is largely coming from the supply side, not the demand side, ushering in a new era of economics and policy. How do you manage the economy and geopolitical situations when supply is critical but demand continues? How do you mitigate sources of potential collapse?

#5: Solar Boom is Transforming Emerging Economies

Kira Schacht - DW

Renewable energy is cheaper than ever, thanks to Wright’s law scale factors.

Access is more widespread than ever.

As emerging economies and global living standards rise, emerging economies and developing nations are increasingly investing in renewable electricity.

Current conflicts worldwide, especially in OPEC nations, have shown the world’s continued dependence on fossil fuels—prices are skyrocketing, causing ripple effects across economies, cultures, and individual lives.

Emerging and developing economies crave access to domestically sourced renewable energy and its benefits, which can enable long-term success.

These countries have less energy infrastructure built around fossil fuels and are therefore better placed to roll out renewable energy sources faster. Fossil fuel-centric countries are now trying to transition to renewables, but centuries of legacy infrastructure hold them back.

In most cases, solar power is now cheaper to produce than fossil fuel energy, and unlike traditional oil or gas plants, which take years to build and require millions in investment, solar and wind farms can be built quickly and at much lower cost.

That’s a wrap on this week’s roundup.

Drew Jackson

Founder & Writer

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© 2026 Brainwaves. All rights reserved.

Credit Avanse

Bill Gates, Warren Buffett, Obama - all of the great leaders we look up to have many things in common. One of the most critical is that they never stopped learning, no matter how far they were from school.

Reading Time: 8 minutes for full analysis + key takeaways highlighted throughout

Key Question: So often, people leave school and assume their structured learning time is over for the rest of their lives. Why?

My Take: If you have a growth mindset, your education doesn’t stop when you leave school. If anything, it should increase, as you have more time and resources, and have more clearly refined the subjects you are interested in. It’s easy to get complacent and assume you’ll learn another time, but without consistent structure (like you had in school), it’s hard to do it ad hoc. Putting habits, rituals, and workstreams in place will further your chances of long-term success and increase your knowledge exponentially.

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Let’s dive in.

I graduated college at 22.

On paper, my education is done; I’ve earned all my diplomas (including preschool).

Nothing forces me to keep learning and studying.

That mindset is powerful, but it can stagnate your long-term growth.

Your education doesn’t stop when you’re 22.

It’s easy to think that whenever you finish your last official stint of education (college, high school, middle school, elementary, preschool, or other), that you’re done—there isn’t anything else out there.

I’ve seen many people with this attitude. I’ve also seen some who believe the opposite: that your education never stops, whether you have formal schooling or not.

For the second group, it could be as simple as reading a new book every month, trying new foods, or striking up conversations with new people. There are thousands of ways to continue being curious, interested, and engaged with the world around you.

The Current State of Reading

You will likely spend a lot of time on the internet today.

The average human spends 6 hours and 38 minutes a day online. Surprisingly, this hasn’t increased dramatically over the past decade; in 2014, people spent 6 hours and 23 minutes online.

Despite this, only 14.6% of Americans read more than 20 minutes per day for personal interest. In contrast, about 80% of Americans watch shows, play games, or use a computer for personal interest for more than 20 minutes per day.

More than 80% of Americans read for 5 minutes or less per day.

Why aren’t Americans reading more?

Many factors currently compete for everyone’s free time. The rise of smartphones, streaming video services, social media, and on-demand gaming has changed how adults spend their time. Screen activities offer immediate feedback loops and passive consumption options that directly compete with the active cognitive load sustained reading requires.

Current shifts toward short-form media condition habits around rapid information snippets. Long-form reading demands continuous focus and lower external stimulation, making the transition to in-depth reading harder for consistent screen users.

To be clear, Americans today read vast amounts of text digitally throughout the day, from news feeds, online articles, professional correspondence, and digital communication, but this doesn’t fall into the traditional “personal interest reading” that is tracked in the studies.

Almost everyone has time to read. Usually, you don’t read because the alternative is more appealing or easier in the moment.

If Americans aren’t reading for personal interests, how else can they learn?

While traditional long-form reading for personal interest has declined, lifelong learning has shifted into active, audio-visual, digital, and interactive formats.

• Podcasts, audiobooks, lecture series, and digital audio courses allow individuals to absorb complex ideas during everyday activities like commuting, exercising, or doing household chores

• High-production educational video platforms (e.g., MasterClass), specialized tutorials, and breakdown-style video essays convert dense topics into easy step-by-step explanations

• Community-driven knowledge networks such as online forums, specialized newsletter channels, and industry-specific online communities provide peer-to-peer problem-solving and discussion

Excuses vs. Choices: Prioritizing What Matters

There is no good excuse, only choices.

But why should you choose to read? Why should you choose to learn?

Many of the world’s great leaders, founders, and investors consistently dedicate substantial time to reading and quiet reflection.

For instance, Bill Gates reads around 50 non-fiction books per year and takes an annual “think week” retreat, where he isolates with no distractions and dedicates the time entirely to reading academic papers, books, and other proposals.

Warren Buffett is said to spend about 80% of his workday reading and thinking. Barack Obama made time while president to read at least 30 minutes every night. Patrick Collison, the Co-Founder and CEO of Stripe, keeps a personal library of thousands of books, reading to identify long-term structural patterns.

These individuals use structural frameworks to protect their time and prioritize learning. For instance, some use the 5-hour rule: committing at least 1 hour per working day strictly to deliberate learning, reading, or reflection. Others block their calendar with strong rigidity.

For these high-level decision-makers, reading is not a luxury or leisure activity, but a critical leverage point.

• Facts and models compound over time. A broad foundation of multidisciplinary mental models allows high performers to evaluate complex risk far faster than starting from scratch.

• High-level executives are consistently flooded with alerts, meetings, notifications, and other stimuli. Long books and papers provide synthesized context rather than fragmented noise.

• High performers distinguish between executing tasks and thinking clearly. Setting aside dedicated time to read, process, and understand ensures you evaluate strategic direction before you allocate capital or effort.

If the President and world-class investors have time to prioritize their learning, it comes down to sticking to your values and prioritizing active learning over passive consumption.

What to Read: Building Your Unique Mindset

Author Haruki Murakami, in his book Norwegian Wood, provides an incredibly valuable perspective:

The better I got to know Nagasawa, the stranger he seemed… He was a far more voracious reader than I, but he made it a rule never to touch a book by any author who had not been dead at least thirty years. “That’s the only kind of book I can trust,” he said.

“It’s not that I don’t believe in contemporary literature,” he added, “but I don’t want to waste valuable time reading any book that has not had the baptism of time. Life is too short… If you only read the books that everyone else is reading, you can only think what everyone else is thinking. That’s the world of hicks and slobs. Real people would be ashamed of themselves doing that. Haven’t you noticed, Watanabe? You and I are the only real ones in the dorm. The other guys are crap.”

Nagasawa is only half right. You don’t have to avoid new or popular things entirely. They serve their own purposes in the grand scheme of life.

So what should you read?

Start by building a strong foundation in time-tested historical literature. Read Plato, Socrates, John Locke, Milton Friedman, Adam Smith, and more. These will form the base layer of your knowledge – the core beliefs that solidify others and that change slowly over time.

From there, engage with current ideals, philosophies, and events that will help refine how your foundational layer directly applies and works with the world around us.

This methodology combines the best of both worlds, similar to an 80/20 approach: most of your knowledge comes from historical texts and time-tested approaches, with only a small portion drawn from the current nuances of today’s environment.

Finding Your Learning Spark

There are many times in my life when I wish I had kept playing the piano longer. My parents were the type of parents who made you “required” to learn the piano as a kid and play until you graduated high school.

From the time I started until I stopped around sophomore year of high school, I don’t think I ever truly enjoyed playing the piano for any long stretch. My hypothesis is that I never was playing the types of music I would truly enjoy.

I never entirely meshed with the highly technical classical music I was playing - I would have much rather played piano versions of current radio songs or other hits that I was more familiar with.

Learning and book reading are the same way. There are so many ways to learn, and so many different genres of books out there.

The trick is to have the patience to try enough to find “your type.” Reading books and learning about topics that truly excite and interest you makes it much easier to keep going. Trying to understand topics that aren’t engaging won’t work in the long term.

Often, the main barrier isn’t a lack of time or ability. It’s that you just haven’t found the best subject matter for you yet.

Stop settling for low-value internet distractions. It’s tough—I know from personal experience how hard it is to choose to read for 30 minutes at night vs. rotting on my phone in bed. The exponential payoff of reading is so much higher in the long run, but the short-term pain can sometimes be more than you’re willing to bear in the moment.

Habits are critical, routines crucial. Spending 30 minutes reading every day, no matter what, will create a habit that is incredibly hard to break.

This principle matters whether you’re 5, 15, 22, or 75. No matter where you are in your life, your education hasn’t stopped. You should always strive to learn and grow.

Imagine for a second how much you would know if you truly studied like you were in school every single day of your life. How incredibly far along would you be? What wouldn’t you know?

It’s easy to graduate from school and think you’re all done for the rest of your life. You’ve probably met people with this attitude before. Where are they at now? Likely, they aren’t as far along, as happy, or as in balance with the world around them as the continuous learners out there.

Strive to be a continuous learner. Pick up a book, find one that you enjoy, and dive in deep. Keep diving.

Remember, your education doesn’t stop when you’re 22.

That’s a wrap on this deep dive.

Drew Jackson

Founder & Writer

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• Next Deep Dive: The Art of Demand - October 28th, 2026

• This Saturday: Weekly roundup of breaking developments across energy, space, venture capital, economics, intellectual property, and philosophy

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Disclaimer: Views expressed are personal opinions, not financial advice. This content is educational only. Investment decisions carry risks - always consult professionals and do your own research. All sponsorships are clearly disclosed.

© 2026 Brainwaves. All rights reserved.

This Week I’m Tracking: 13 developments across the sectors shaping our future

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#1: Apeiron Labs

Description: Apeiron Labs develops autonomous underwater vehicles.

Why Is This Company Interesting? Apeiron Labs recently raised $9.5M in venture capital funding. Apeiron is a defense-tech startup building advanced AI platforms for autonomous military systems. The software enables real-time tactical decision-making, sensor fusion, and collaborative coordination for unmanned aerial and ground vehicles in contested environments.

#2: Newcleo

Description: Newcleo produces nuclear reactors and nuclear fuel.

Why Is This Company Interesting? Newcleo recently raised $85M in venture capital funding. Newcleo is a clean energy company developing Gen IV nuclear reactors. The company uses liquid lead coolant and mixed-oxide fuel derived from nuclear waste. The fast-neutron reactors are designed to generate safe, continuous, and virtually inexhaustible baseload electricity while reducing existing waste.

#3: Forerunner

Description: Forerunner provides flood resilience software.

Why Is This Company Interesting? Forerunner recently raised $39M in venture capital funding. Forerunner serves local governments and floodplain managers by streamlining flood risk management and regulatory compliance. Forerunner simplifies FEMA reporting and automates improvement and damage tracking to improve community resilience and lower insurance costs.

#4: Logos Space Services

Description: Logos Space Services provides low-Earth orbit broadband satellite communications.

Why Is This Company Interesting? Logos Space Services recently raised $50M in venture capital funding. Logos Space Services is a satellite communications startup deploying a low-Earth-orbit satellite constellation. Logos provides secure, high-bandwidth broadband and optical interconnectivity tailored for government sectors operating in remote areas.

#5: Phathom Technologies

Description: Phathom Technologies is a carbon capture and marine storage startup.

Why Is This Company Interesting? Phathom Technologies recently raised $12.5M in venture capital funding. Phathom is a climate-tech startup developing marine-based carbon dioxide removal systems. Phathom captures biogenic emissions from industrial sources and stores them safely in ocean waters as stable bicarbonate, converting waste carbon into long-term ocean alkalinity.

The New York Times: A New Trend in Nuclear Energy: Squeezing More Power Out of Old Plants

As we’ve seen over the last few decades in the U.S., building a nuclear power plant is long and hard. A cheaper, more efficient solution is squeezing even more power from old reactors built decades ago. This process involves upgrading key components inside nuclear plants, which can cost billions and require regulatory approval. The good part is they can often be completed in five years or less at a fraction of the cost of building a new nuclear plant from scratch.

The New York Times: Why Cities and States Are Fighting Climate Change in Courtrooms

As the legislative and executive branches of the U.S. government have failed to take direct action on climate change, cities and states are turning to the courts as one last place to receive justice. Who should pay the soaring costs of climate change, the intensifying wildfires, storms, and heat waves? Cities and states argue it should be everyone who profited from oil and helped spread it widely.

The New York Times: SpaceX’s Starship Makes It to Orbit for the First Time, but Returns to Earth Early

This week, SpaceX’s Starship finally circled Earth, a key milestone for eventually sending people to the Moon or Mars. The vehicle completed two orbits instead of the planned six because engine problems occurred during liftoff. The spacecraft splashed down, but exploded when leftover methane fuel ignited.

ABC News: Private Spacecraft Falls Back to Earth After Failing to Rescue Aging NASA Telescope

Katalyst Space Technologies’ attempt to rescue an aging NASA telescope failed. The robotic spacecraft plunged back to Earth less than three months after launching. This provided a valuable proof point for future satellite rescue missions. Teams planning future satellite rescue missions should aim to expedite missions to ensure viability.

The New York Times: Who Owns the Moon?

In 1967, more than 100 countries agreed via the Outer Space Treaty that the Moon belonged to no one. Now in 2026, this belief may have changed. China and Russia want to build a base near the South Pole. The United States is no different. It’s believed that whoever goes first gets to set the rules everyone else must follow.

RStreet: America’s Patent Office Measures IP’s Footprint, Not Its Payoff

The U.S. Patent and Trademark Office studies and measures the use of IP across U.S. industries. Notably, it does not measure, or claim to measure, how much of the nation’s economic output is generated by IP. The office primarily measures the volume of filings, such as patents, when it should be measuring impact.

Psychology Today: Why Seeing Each Other Matters

The face is much more than a physical feature. In geopolitics today, public debates continue over restrictions on face-covering garments, especially in Europe. Understanding what happens between us when we can see each other’s faces is central to these discussions. Seeing someone blush, smile, or make any other facial expression is all about the information gathered. It also makes them emotionally present.

Reddit: Adult Life Proves that Most of Our Bonds Were Just Proximity, Not Depth

How did you meet your friends?

In high school, I met mine because we were in the same classes and activities and spent a lot of time together.

Did these have the depth of true, adult relationships? Some, but others weren’t mature and didn’t have the depth required to stick around.

People often cite that smartphones are blinding us, draining us, and destroying human connection. In contrast, when transitioning from young adulthood onwards, most people realize that there are few people they can genuinely talk to.

Most of our past relationships existed because we shared the same space and daily routine. Once you move away or move on, the time and distance can easily break these relationships.

That’s a wrap on this week’s roundup.

Drew Jackson

Founder & Writer

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This Week I’m Tracking: 10 developments across the sectors shaping our future

Reading Time: 5 minutes of curated insights

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#1: Mö Foods

Description: Mö Foods produces oat-based cheeses.

Why Is This Company Interesting? Mö Foods recently raised $2.8M in venture capital funding. Mö Foods is a food-tech company developing oat-based dairy alternatives. Specializing in plant-based artisanal cheeses, Mö utilizes proprietary processing techniques to transform oats into a creamy, sustainable alternative to dairy-based cheese.

#2: Amperon

Description: Amperon is a grid forecasting technology provider.

Why Is This Company Interesting? Amperon recently raised undisclosed funding. Amperon is an AI-powered grid analytics platform that provides demand and supply forecasting. Their platform uses a combination of currently available (in depthO weather data combined with proprietary machine learning models.

#3: Hydrosat

Description: Hydrosat provides space-based thermal imagery.

Why Is This Company Interesting? Hydrosat recently raised $60M in venture capital funding. Hydrosat is a space-tech and earth observation company using satellite thermal infrared imagery to monitor land and water temperatures. Measuring thermal surface energy and crop stress, Hydrosat provides intelligence for agriculture, irrigation management, drought monitoring, and climate risk assessment.

#4: GlassPoint

Description: GlassPoint sells solar-generated steam for industrial uses.

Why Is This Company Interesting? GlassPoint recently raised $20M in venture capital funding. GlassPoint is a solar thermal tech company that designs and operates solar steam generators for industrial process heat. This steam is carbon-free and reduces fossil fuel dependence and emissions across major industrial end markets.

#5: Cyclic Materials

Description: Cyclic Materials is a recycling startup.

Why Is This Company Interesting? Cyclic Materials recently raised $75M in venture capital funding. Cyclic Materials is building a circular supply chain for critical materials. The company uses advanced recycling processes to extract and refine high-purity rare earth elements and copper from end-of-life electronics.

Wall Street Journal: A Safer Way to Bet on Nuclear

Uranium enrichment is a key step in making nuclear fuel that nuclear reactors need to run. This operates in a unique, isolated corner of the market surrounded by national security concerns. Only two companies, both in Europe, hold enrichment capacity outside of Russia and China. Investors are seeing this as a way to get exposure to nuclear energy without dealing with the volatility of nuclear developers.

The New York Times: A New Type of Small Nuclear Reactor Gets the Green Light in Tennessee

The Tennessee Valley Authority was granted construction permits this week by the NRC for a small reactor. It’s only the second time U.S. regulators have approved a next-generation commercial reactor. The Tennessee Valley Authority is considering pursuing approval for up to 4 new reactors, designed to be smaller than traditional nuclear power plants.

The New York Times: Six Charts That Show Just How Much We Need A.I.

Do we need AI? Here is one researcher’s view, represented in 6 charts:

• Productivity Growth Has Been Stuck Below Its Postwar Pace for 50 Years

• Working Less, Earning More

• Entering The Computer Era

• A.I.’s Early Winners and Losers

• The Farm Shock, How Agriculture is Shrinking

• Workers’ Slice Shrinks, Profits’ Slice Grows

The Atlantic: America’s Hypocritical Take on Intellectual Property

Many companies want payment for using their work to train AI models. Many have sued the big AI companies, claiming their content was used to train these AI models without consent or permission. This amounts to more than 130 lawsuits against OpenAI, Google, Amazon, and other generative AI players. What should we do next, given that these may soon be considered national security concerns?

Aeon: A Good Skeptic Has More Than Doubt and Less Than Certainty

How tightly should you hold onto your beliefs?

This is a question we face every day, whether we know it or not. In an ideal world, we would know what our beliefs are at all times and understand what we stand for.

“If you hold your beliefs too loosely, you don’t stand for anything. If you hold them too tightly and you become the sort of person no argument can reach.”

Below is the Academic method for practicing skepticism (as related in the article):

• Say how confident you are, not just what you think. ‘I believe X’ is nearly useless. ‘I believe X, at about 7 out of 10, and here is what is holding back the other 3’ gives your partner something to work with and gives you somewhere to move in the light of new evidence or better arguments.

• Grade your beliefs by how hard you’ve tested them.

• Separate your values from your empirical beliefs. That children should not go hungry is a value and may be held firmly. That a particular school-meals program reduces hunger is an empirical claim, to be held only as firmly as the evidence warrants. Conflating the two is what makes people defend failing policies as though their integrity depended on it.

• State in advance what would change your mind. If nothing would, you do not have a belief; you have an identity.

• Argue the other side properly. The point was not cynicism but that you do not truly know what you believe until you have built the strongest case against it yourself.

• Act anyway. The skeptic who treats uncertainty as a reason to postpone action has missed the point entirely. Uncertainty is the permanent condition of humanity; deciding effectively within that is a skill we can all benefit from.

• Treat being wrong as data rather than disgrace. If you follow these skeptical rules of thumb, you will change your mind from time to time – or at least ought to. The question is whether you experience that as humiliation or as the method working.

That’s a wrap on this week’s roundup.

Drew Jackson

Founder & Writer

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Credit Nexford University

Entrepreneurship isn’t what you see on the news or what is taught in Harvard lectures. True entrepreneurs simply have “more” - what does this mean?

Reading Time: 11 minutes for full analysis + key takeaways highlighted throughout

Key Question: What are the key aspects of entrepreneurship?

My Take: The reality of entrepreneurship is incredibly different than what’s portrayed in media, written in books, or taught in Harvard lectures. In a way, the following is no different. As I am not an entrepreneur, my view is not one of tried-and-true experience, but rather through seeing what’s been discussed, mentioned, or otherwise proclaimed about the concept of entrepreneurship and pulling the common thread throughout. The key aspects of entrepreneurship rarely line up, but they’re critical to success, mindset, and an entrepreneur’s overall approach.

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I am not an entrepreneur.

I’ve never founded a company, been part of a company’s early stages, or seriously considered starting one myself.

In that sense, I am one of the last people you would imagine having differentiated thoughts on entrepreneurship. For tacit knowledge is far superior to explicit knowledge.

Thousands of books, millions of articles, hundreds of thousands of public speeches and lectures, thousands of university professors, and many more have weighed in on entrepreneurship.

Why am I different?

I am an outsider. I don’t profess to know anything through direct experience; I simply notice patterns in what people do and what people who do know things write about.

There’s a common thread underlying these topics, one that goes largely unnoticed and unreported, yet one that is critical when determining an entrepreneur’s success.

My aim today isn’t to provide another list of entrepreneurial qualities we should all seek or to offer an all-inclusive guide to success; rather, it is to highlight aspects of entrepreneurship that are critical to success yet often overlooked. Often, these appear in various places but rarely together, showing their interplay and necessity for success.

The Common View of Entrepreneurs vs. The Reality

The quintessential founding story starts with a garage or a bedroom. Every entrepreneur has to start somewhere; often, the lowest-friction environment is the safety and confines of your own home.

These entrepreneurs are often high school or college dropouts, romanticized for keeping on tinkering with their ideas until they stumbled upon something that “worked.” Initial customer wins began a continuous wave, turning the idea from a small drop of water into a maelstrom. Funding sources all desperately compete for the smallest share of this rocket ship, naively presenting a vision of the “world to come” and capitalizing on the scarcity of being the “next big thing.”

Unlike what you may read in your Harvard Business School case studies or the edge cases you see in the news, entrepreneurial reality is far different from this utopian viewpoint consistently paraded around.

To begin, MIT researchers found that the mean age of founders who successfully built the 1-in-1,000 companies that became rocket ships was 45.

In a grounded reality, this fact makes even more sense. These individuals have often spent the last 10-20 years in that industry, have significant practical experience under their belts, and, most importantly, know the pain points firsthand and have theories on how to fix them.

In fact, well-known brand names were founded by enlightened individuals over 40. These include Walmart, Comcast, Ford Motor Company, Workday, Coca-Cola, KFC, Dior, Adobe, Nestle, Red Bull, and many more.

These findings strongly reject the widely spread ideal that youth is a key trait of successful entrepreneurs—yet thousands of students still graduate with entrepreneurship degrees each year.

When you hear the founding stories of current billionaire entrepreneurs, the media often criticizes their idealized “founding story”, uncovering it for what it really is. Elon Musk comes from a wealthy South African background. Mark Zuckerberg got $100,000 from his parents to start Facebook. Generational wealth, connections, and assistance drove the initial stages of Microsoft, Dell, Nike, Amazon, and many more.

Family money, connections, and background (often a notable last name) play a critical role in entrepreneurship. It’s one of the primary sources of funding for startups—ahead of bank loans or venture capital.

Researchers found a high correlation between your parents’ income and your chances of becoming a startup entrepreneur. This was the most important factor in the likelihood of starting a business, largely because it provides a financial safety net.

Contrary to intuition, although these founders are better capitalized, the chances of entrepreneurial success aren’t dramatically different. In fact, research found that founders who received investments from parents, family members, or close friends were less likely to take risks and grew more slowly than those funded by an outside source.

So what truly powers an entrepreneur if it’s not youth or raw capital?

Often it’s a fundamental detachment from statistical odds. Researcher Thomas Astebro demonstrated that returns on inventions (i.e., returns on early-stage entrepreneurs) are far lower than those on venture capital.

Startup failure statistics are dismal. If failure means liquidation, then the failure rate for startups is 30-40%. If it’s failing to see the projected return on investment, it’s 70-80%. If it’s defining a projection and then falling short of meeting it, then it’s 90-95%.

To function with these statistics, entrepreneurs need to maintain some blindness/naivety to the odds and an obsession with their own positive Black Swans. Hope is critical.

Economist and writer Amar Bhide found that “Entrepreneurs don’t care about the statistical likelihood of a business like theirs failing.” They care about their own businesses. “They make their judgments through some combination of imagination and the facts of the matter at hand.”

An entrepreneur’s decision-making process is not a rigid process with predictable inputs and outputs (Y = MX + B; a science). Instead, it resembles an orchestral piece (an art): an intricate, highly interrelated combination of imagination, facts, designs, and conduct. Entrepreneurs don’t evaluate choices through cold, objective algorithms; they synthesize vision and reality into a complex narrative.

The Core Characteristics of Exceptional Founders

Besides being ~45, from generational wealth or not, and having naive, lottery-winning-like confidence, what makes one entrepreneur more likely to succeed than another?

Conventional startup advice lists often miss the mark here. For instance, Harvard Business School published an article on the “10 Characteristics of Successful Entrepreneurs”, including the following: curiosity, willingness to experiment, risk tolerance, comfort with failure, persistence, adaptability, decisiveness, innovative thinking, self-awareness, and long-term focus.

Don’t get me wrong, all of these characteristics are good in an entrepreneur, but in my opinion, they don’t “make” an entrepreneur—for instance, elementary teachers exhibited these traits (teaching kids to read in innovative ways, adapting to stresses, failures, innovating, and being self-aware when things with the “troubled students” didn’t work out, yet continually trying again to drive long-term gains), but they aren’t world-class successful entrepreneurs (but they did create a great foundational knowledge that has helped me get to where I am today).

True entrepreneurs I’ve met simply have “more.” They create obsessive depth and systemic visions around their core niche. They have deep curiosity and bottomless, nuanced knowledge, holding the entire system in their heads—from the 50,000-foot view (the forest) down to the millimeter (the seed). Try digging into a founder’s product with them for 5-10 hours straight, and you’ll see exactly what I mean—they’ll chat your ear off.

Successful entrepreneurs exhibit a bias towards action and iteration. Why talk the talk when you can walk the walk? As Ash notes in LeanFoundry, “The most successful founders pack more iterations per unit of time than others.” Relentless execution accomplishes more—increasing your chances of success if you can build more, fail more, communicate more, learn more, read more, network more, more, more, and more.

You know you’ve met an entrepreneur who exhibits these traits. They have the rare ability to attract and pull the best work out of world-class people. I’ve met many founding teams where some of the absolute best individuals in their fields worked and collaborated to achieve a utopian vision of the world. It takes a special individual to bring these people together.

Entrepreneurs do showcase persistence, but it is so much more than that. They possess a tireless work ethic, adaptability, and an unyielding commitment to solving a massive puzzle. The best entrepreneurs are those who can’t afford to fail. Warriors do their best fighting when their backs are up against the wall.

Great founders aren’t found in the middle, in the median, mode, or average. They’re almost always found at the extremes. Iconic creators are completely obsessed with their craft—they live their business, not simply working it as if it were a job or a hobby. Entrepreneurship is a way of life. Michael Tefula writes in his publication VC Mastery, “Whether it’s the founder of Ferrari working 12-16 hours every day, James Dyson iterating through 5,000+ designs of a vacuum cleaner, or Estée Lauder obsessing about what cosmetics can do for beauty, great founders have one thing in common: They’re extremes, not moderates.”

Strategy, Systems, and the Art of Decision-Making

Most startup advice focuses on tactics: developing a good idea, a good business model, sizing the market, interviewing customers, determining demand, and building a minimum viable product. Tactics are merely the means of getting from A to B, the modes of travel. Strategy is the route on the map.

Tactics govern the short term; strategy determines who survives the distance. The long-term question every unicorn-seeking entrepreneur is answering is “how do we get to be a dominant company in a massive market?” Answering this question is strategy. It’s not as simple as “we’ll win because we’re better” or “someone will take this entire market; it might as well be us.”

A good strategy combined with an exceptional entrepreneur is a recipe for becoming and remaining dominant in a large market by deterring or delaying competition.

Succeeding on this journey is incredibly difficult, as it requires mastering complex systems and managing uncertainty.

Inward vs. Outward Perceptions

In Silicon Valley and throughout the United States, founders often occupy a unique space in the business world. Tina He writes in Fakepixels, “They are extreme insiders by their power and vision, yet often extreme outsiders in their eccentricities and willingness to break convention. The result is a strange hybrid: manufactured mythology running on engagement metrics, where founders must navigate between being deified and demonized.”

Within Silicon Valley, founding stories follow classic hero’s journey patterns: Steve Jobs was the outcast turned hero, Mark Zuckerberg was the boy king, and Elon Musk was the Prometheus figure bringing fire to mortals.

Investors often focus heavily on a founder’s personal narrative. The evolution of founders into sacred figures follows a consistent trajectory: the initial blessing (receiving venture capital funding), a period of adversity (the “valley of death”), and the eventual triumph or failure (which leads back to giving back to other entrepreneurs as an angel, restarting the cycle).

Investors, amid the uncertainty, seek signals to evaluate founders through a framework that prioritizes the following:

• The Capacity for Transformation: An entrepreneur’s readiness to shed former assumptions and navigate prolonged uncertainty

• The Willingness to Face Ordeals: An entrepreneur’s endurance to survive the “valley of death.”

• The Potential for Restoration: An entrepreneur’s ability to bring a vision to fruition and rally others into the unknown

However, the line between the attractive narrative and deception is thin. Often, storytelling can detach from substance. Founders can hyper-focus on narrative, spending more time debating the story than the product/user experience. As seen with cautionary figures like Gerald Cotten or Elizabeth Holmes, the attention economy can reward the outward performance of “founding” over the quiet labor of product-market fit, customer retention, and real revenue.

Do Founders Truly Make or Break an Investment?

One of the major questions around entrepreneurship, which likely deserves its own article, is whether founders truly make or break an investment. Are they critical to returns, or are they simply part of a broader package?

The evidence points to an undeniable effect of entrepreneurs on a company’s success. Packy at Not Boring describes how investors view this dynamic:

You’re paid to analyze and invest in businesses, so you do market maps and TAM analysis and pick apart the strategy and dive deep into the technology, compare it to other technologies, map the competitive landscape, track traffic metrics, model out a base case, bull case, and bear case, trade notes with other investors, tap your expert network for their insights, and do any number of things that makes it feel like the investment decision is based on something substantial. You pick apart everything I just wrote about in The Plan, question this assumption or that. You come up with smart-sounding reasons that This Will Never Work. The thing is, though: a truly excellent founder has done all of this, and more.

Exceptional founders have spent years analyzing these dynamics with a depth no external observer can fully match. In building their company, they are committing years of their life when they have countless other elite options competing for their time.

Investing in a founder means choosing to believe what they believe, despite a potential lack of objective evidence or rational odds. They recognize that a unique founder can make authoritative decisions, inspire deep loyalty, and plan for decades in a way an interchangeable manager could not.

Ultimately, entrepreneurship is a self-actualizing and self-transcending activity. Nassim Taleb puts it perfectly in his book Antifragile:

Most of you will fail, disrespected, impoverished, but we are grateful for the risks you are taking and the sacrifices you are making for the sake of the economic growth of the planet and pulling others out of poverty. You are at the source of our antifragility. Our nation thanks you.

That’s a wrap on this deep dive.

Drew Jackson

Founder & Writer

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This Week I’m Tracking: 13 developments across the sectors shaping our future

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#1: Forerunner

Description: Forerunner is a provider of flood resilience software.

Why Is This Company Interesting? Forerunner recently raised $39M in venture capital funding. Forerunner is a climate-tech software platform for local governments and other managers that streamlines flood risk management and regulatory compliance. Forerunner digitizes property-level flood data, simplifies FEMA reporting, and automates improvement and damage tracking.

#2: Logos Space Services

Description: Logos Space Services provides LEO broadband satellite communications.

Why Is This Company Interesting? Logos Space Services recently raised $50M in venture capital funding. Logos is a satellite communications startup deploying a LEO satellite constellation. They focus on providing secure, high-bandwidth broadband and optical interconnectivity to enterprises and government.

#3: Phathom Technologies

Description: Phathom Technologies captures and stores carbon dioxide.

Why Is This Company Interesting? Phathom Technologies recently raised $12.5M in venture capital funding. Phathom Technologies is a climate-tech startup developing marine-based carbon dioxide removal systems. Phathom captures biogenic emissions from industrial sources and other sources and safely stores them in ocean waters as stable bicarbonate, converting waste carbon into long-term ocean alkalinity enhancement.

#4: Inertia Enterprises

Description: Inertia Enterprises is a fusion energy startup.

Why Is This Company Interesting? Inertia Enterprises recently raised $450M in venture capital funding. Inertia develops laser-driven inertial confinement technology. Spun out of research labs, Inertia designs modular laser architectures and high-repetition target systems to commercialize clean, grid-ready nuclear fusion power.

#5: Upside Robotics

Description: Upside Robotics builds solar-powered agricultural autonomous robots.

Why Is This Company Interesting? Upside Robotics recently raised $7.5M in venture capital funding. Upside is an agtech company building lightweight, autonomous field robots for precision farming. Its mobile robotic fleet doses nutrients directly to individual crops, reducing chemical fertilizer waste by up to 70% while improving crop yields and soil health.

World Nuclear News: IEA’s Projections Suggest There Could Be 1,000 SMRs by 2060

The International Atomic Energy Agency has released its annual projections of future energy demands and nuclear power capacity. The high case estimates that small modular reactors could provide up to 284 GW of capacity. At the end of 2025, 413 nuclear reactors were operating worldwide, generating 377 GW.

The New York Times: A Second Judge Strikes Down New York’s Climate “Superfund” Law

A second federal judge in New York has ruled that the state’s new climate law is unconstitutional. This law would have required fossil fuel companies to pay billions of dollars to cover the costs of climate change. A handful of other states are pursuing similar laws in the coming years.

Boston: US Acknowledges for the First Time That It Has Deployed Weapons in Space

The United States has confirmed for the first time that it has deployed weapons in space. Two years ago, the U.S. warned that Russia was developing a new space-based, anti-satellite weapon. In recent years, the United Nations has held multiple debates about weapons in space.

The New York Times: Google Takes the AI Data Center to Outer Space

Google is currently undergoing Project Suncatcher, which aims to put artificial intelligence data centers into space. On October 1st, 2026, they are sending the first satellite up into space for a technology company. As data centers continue to grapple with physical limits, having computing in Space has become increasingly attractive.

The Wall Street Journal: A Rocket Supply Crunch is Making it Harder to Hitch a Ride to Space

A rocket supply crunch is prompting a scramble across the space industry. Companies are consistently looking for additional ways to get satellites and spacecraft deployed into space. Many rockets under development are behind schedule. One issue is that SpaceX has stopped selling missions where several companies share space on a Falcon 9 rocket. Launch demand is set to outstrip supply at least through the end of the decade.

Big Think: History Shows That Human Progress is a Myth

The Western view is that progress is the natural way to view history - everything is always getting better. Historically, though, when looking back hundreds or thousands of years, none of these assumptions are made about the future of mankind being potentially better than it’s ever been in the past. Progress is not the same as improvement. Progress means a cumulative advancement that does not regress over generations or centuries. In this case, technology progresses greatly over time. Ethics and politics do not.

CBC: Climate Change Past the Point of No Return

A bit of existential dread this week.

From the top, the United Nations acknowledged that Earth has lost its chance to prevent some of the worst harm from global warming.

Have we lost all hope? No. But irreversible harm may still be coming.

“Instead of giving up, scientists and UN officials recommend trying to limit excessive warming and then bring the temperature back down to the agreed-upon threshold. But it still will mean decades of increased weather-related disasters, rising seas, extinctions, and melting ice and glaciers.”

This is a bleak view. It’s tough to stay positive about the world’s long-term potential when these factors are on the horizon.

What should we do? Live each day to the best of your abilities. Try to do “your part” to the extent you can and encourage others to do theirs.

That’s a wrap on this week’s roundup.

Drew Jackson

Founder & Writer

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This Week I’m Tracking: 12 developments across the sectors shaping our future

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#1: PlasmaLeap Technologies

Description: PlasmaLeap Technologies uses modular plasma reactors to produce fertilizer.

Why Is This Company Interesting? PlasmaLeap Technologies recently raised $21M in venture capital funding. PlasmaLeap is a deep-tech startup developing zero-emission chemical manufacturing systems. Using zero-carbon, non-thermal plasma reactors powered by renewable electricity, PlasmaLeap converts air, water, and electricity into green nitric acid and nitrates. They decarbonize fertilizer and primary chemical production without fossil-fuel feedstocks.

#2: AgriPass

Description: AgriPass is a developer of robotic weed control systems.

Why Is This Company Interesting? AgriPass recently raised $7.5M in venture capital funding. AgriPass is an agricultural technology company developing non-chemical, AI-driven weed management solutions. Utilizing computer vision and real-time sensing, its platform identifies and precisely removes weeds from each plant, reducing soil disturbance and eliminating dependence on synthetic herbicides.

#3: Bindbridge

Description: Bindbridge is a crop-protection developer.

Why Is This Company Interesting? Bindbridge recently raised $3.8M in venture capital funding. Bindbridge utilizes AI to discover protein degraders and molecular glues for crop protection. Bindbridge is developing the next generation of crop health products that degrade specific disease-causing organisms or target pests without harming beneficial organisms or crops.

#4: ReNew Green Energy Solutions

Description: ReNew Green Energy Solutions is an operator of renewable energy systems.

Why Is This Company Interesting? ReNew Green Energy Solutions recently raised $95M in venture capital funding. ReNew Green Energy Solutions designs, builds, and operates utility-scale renewable energy infrastructure. Their solutions span solar, wind, hybrid power, green hydrogen, and other energy storage, with the goal of providing clean power solutions for many enterprises and municipalities.

#5: Aurora Hydrogen

Description: Aurora Hydrogen uses methane pyrolysis to produce hydrogen.

Why Is This Company Interesting? Aurora Hydrogen recently raised $3M in venture capital funding. Aurora Hydrogen is a climate-tech startup pioneering methane pyrolysis to generate low-cost “turquoise” hydrogen. By splitting natural gas into hydrogen gas and solid carbon without water or oxygen, Aurora produces clean hydrogen with zero direct carbon dioxide emissions and significantly lower electricity requirements than water electrolysis.

Electrek: US Solar Can Now Power 50M Homes

The United States has now installed enough capacity to generate clean electricity to power 50 million homes, around a third of all US households. This represents 45% YoY growth and continues the exponential trend solar has seen over the last decade in the US and across the globe.

Electrek: Do Wind and Solar Farms Tank Home Values?

One of the most potent arguments against a new wind or solar farm is that it will drag down nearby home values. A new study found that they did not have an impact. The study period was from 2004 to 2024 and was limited to Indiana. It compared home prices before and after large wind and solar projects came online. The study found no statistically significant negative effect on residential sale prices near wind or solar farms.

The New York Times: Warming Played ‘ Very Strong’ Role in Himalayan Floods

CO2 emissions have significantly warmed the snow-capped Himalayan region. This is likely a direct cause of the Nepal and Tibet rock collapse, which caused devastating floods. Rising temperatures destabilized the ice and permafrost that underlay the mountain slopes. Nepal currently estimates it will cost $5B to recover and rebuild.

Wired: Astronomers Have Completed the Largest Map of Space

This intricate, 5.6 trillion-pixel map covers approximately 75% of the sky and includes over 4 billion objects. The Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument has spent 5 years mapping the cosmos to build this understanding. The result has been the largest 3D map of the universe ever created.

The Wall Street Journal: NASA Explores New Missions With Boeing’s Troubled Starliner Spacecraft

Boeing and NASA are currently in talks to use the Starliner vehicle for an upcoming batch of missions. This is a turnaround for the ship that posed risks to crew members on recent flights to the ISS. The scope could include 10 more missions over the next few years.

Yahoo: Creating and Implementing an IP Strategy

Organizations can analyze their marketplace using Porter’s Five Forces methodology and understand how to implement an IP strategy to strengthen those segments. Every form of IP, including patents, trademarks, design protection, trade secrets, and brand protection efforts, can be critical to establishing and maintaining business value.

Axios: This Obscure Philosophy has Become Trump’s New AI Bogeyman

The philosophy of effective altruism promotes using evidence and reason to do the most good for humanity and has helped shape the AI safety movement. At what point should we slow AI development to prioritize a safer buildout? If some go slower, what is preventing others from still going fast?

Reddit: A Guide to Spotting Boundary Violations

This person explains their journey identifying and creating boundaries in their life, as shown above. This isn’t to say it’s a perfect or all-encompassing guide, but it seems directionally correct for many people’s journeys.

That’s a wrap on this week’s roundup.

Drew Jackson

Founder & Writer

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Credit CNBC

Hostage negotiators face some of the most stressful, complicated situations on the planet - what happens when they use their skills in everyday life scenarios instead?

Reading Time: 10 minutes for full analysis + key takeaways highlighted throughout

Key Question: What can a hostage negotiator teach us about everyday life?

My Take: Hostage negotiators are experts in reading people, scenarios, and motivations. They predict people like a chess game, looking 2, 3, 4, or more moves ahead to see what actions and reactions will lead to, in search of the best outcomes. These principles also apply to everyday life—it’s much easier when lives aren’t always on the line.

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Hostage negotiators are specialized law enforcement or military professionals trained to resolve high-stakes crisis situations through communication. Operating in life-or-death scenarios, such as active hostage takings, barricaded suspects, and suicide interventions, their primary objective is to de-escalate and reach a peaceful resolution without resorting to force.

Their core value lies in their ability to manipulate psychological dynamics under intense stress. Using techniques like active listening, tactical empathy, and emotional labeling, negotiators build rapport with perpetrators. This allows them to slow time, defuse extreme emotional states, and move volatile individuals from irrational rage to decision-making.

Hostage negotiators serve as vital assets during an operation. They gather critical intelligence regarding a suspect’s motives, mental state, weapons, and exact location within a facility. This real-time information helps command structures assess risk accurately and guides tactical teams should direct intervention become unavoidable.

Ultimately, effective negotiation saves lives, protecting hostages, bystanders, law enforcement officers, and perpetrators alike.

By substituting discussion for physical force, negotiators provide a reliable alternative to violent entry, reducing liability and preserving human life in the most unpredictable environments.

Chris Voss - Hostage Negotiator

Chris Voss is a former FBI hostage negotiator, CEO of The Black Swan Group, and the co-author of the book Never Split the Difference.

From 1986 to 2000, Chriss was a member of the New York City Joint Terrorism Task Force. During his time on this unit and after, he spent 24 years working in the FBI Crisis Negotiation Unit, helping with more than 150 international hostage cases.

After retiring from the FBI, he founded The Black Swan Group, a consultancy and trainer for businesses and individuals on negotiation skills. He also serves as a professor at Georgetown University.

Chris is a regular commentator on CNBC, CNN, MSNBC, and Fox News as well as through his social media feeds—which are the basis for this article today.

Chris consistently teaches negotiation skills and how to mindfully position yourself to ensure an optimal outcome.

Here are some of his top lessons.

Lesson #1: How to Get Someone to Talk to You On the Phone

Synopsis: When someone calls you and says, “Do you have a few minutes to talk?” often you think about how long they really mean, what they want to talk about, and what else you have going on in your life. Instead, ask, “Is now a bad time to talk? To this question, there are only two answers: the first being “no, it isn’t,” or, if they say yes, you know it’s a person who can’t talk, and you’ve already solved your issue.

Lesson #2: How to Gain The Upper Hand in a Negotiation

Synopsis: To gain the upper hand in a negotiation, you need to give the other party the illusion of control. Start by asking “what” and “how” questions, which help the other side feel in charge of the conversation. For instance, questioning how it would work pushes them to think of alternative solutions. Guiding them to brainstorm until they arrive at your preferred solution lets you provide the confirmation while they think it was their own idea.

Lesson #3: The Technique of Mirroring

Synopsis: Mirroring is a technique in which you repeat the exact words someone said, guiding them back to that moment and prompting them to expand on that thought using different phrasing. Asking “What do you mean by that?’ causes them to repeat themselves in the exact same way. By mirroring instead, the speaker triggers the listener’s brain to recognize the need to rephrase and explain their point in new words.

Lesson #4: #1 Question to Ask During Job Interviews

Synopsis: Chris’s favorite question to ask in job interviews is “How can I be guaranteed to be involved in projects that are critical to the strategic future of this organization?’’ The goal is to shift their perspective of you by showing you’re thinking about the company’s broader vision. You’re telling them that you want to add value to everybody’s life here, that you want to be with people that are at the highest levels of performance in your company and move everyone forward.

Lesson #5: How to Get on Anyone’s Good Side

Synopsis: During a customer service call, he could tell the other person had had a long day, so he said to her, “You know what? I really appreciate how generous you’ve been with your time.” This changed her attitude—he could tell she felt appreciated and seen. In return, she helped accomplish what he was looking to do. “Most people, if you’re nice to them, can help you if you give them a chance. If you’re just nice to people, it’s amazing what they’ll do for you.”

Lesson #6: How to Talk to Underperforming Employees

Synopsis: When people aren’t performing to a certain standard, we often respond with, “Why didn’t you do that? Do you know you failed in the agreement?” with the goal of accusing them of not performing. Instead, say, “Seems like you have a good reason for not performing.” You want to get people back on track, not push them further away.

Lesson #7: How to Deliver Bad News

Synopsis: In the doctor’s office, they’ll often say, “This is going to hurt,” so then when they hit you with the needle, you appreciate that you were warned and you were braced and prepared for the pain. If, instead, the doctor suddenly stabbed you, you’d be mad. This principle sticks for delivering bad news. If you have bad news to deliver, you should say, “You’re going to react negatively to this. You’re not going to like it. This is going to sound harsh.” This approach primes them for the bad news and makes it come across less harsh.

Lesson #8: Advice on Thinking About Price

Synopsis: Whoever names the price first loses, as it anchors the conversation. People get so price-focused—with deals, price doesn’t make them; it’s often a main deal-breaker. Similarly, your salary doesn’t make your career; your salary gives you the ability to pay your bills while you try to make your career. If you’re underpaid, you can’t pay your bills and thus won’t be able to do your best work. Bringing it back to price, price is really just a sweet spot for both sides where they can go through with the deal.

Lesson #9: The Best Way to Say “No”

Synopsis: His go-to approach to saying “no” without being confrontationally blunt is to ask the open-ended question, “How am I supposed to do that?” This helps reframe the conversation when the opposing party resists completely and tells you to figure it out. Effective negotiation strategy centers on maximizing every term without provoking anger or pushing them away. The secret is maintaining a calm, deferential posture so you can hold your ground without escalating tension.

Lesson #10: The Most Dangerous Negotiations

Synopsis: The most dangerous type of negotiation is one you do not realize you are participating in. Whether you know it or not, you're probably in about 7 negotiations every day. To understand whether you are or not, look for these key triggers:

• A conversation involves a person thinking the words “I want”

• Enter an interaction hoping to receive a “yes” response

Lesson #11: How Casinos Brainwash You

Synopsis: Casinos rely on precise probabilities to make money, ensuring players win often enough to keep playing. Through large volumes, they make up their small margins over time, which can cascade into large aggregate winnings. Rare wins are accompanied by flashing lights, ringing bells, and loud sirens to create a grand celebration, disguising the fact that players fail more often. Most people struggle to recognize the value of steady trust because big, dramatic wins are so heavily celebrated and seductive that people forget how rarely they happen.

Lesson #12: Never Compromise In An Argument

Synopsis: In contrast to popular methodologies, compromise is guaranteed to leave both parties unhappy and should be avoided. Instead of compromising, negotiators invest time in uncovering the other party’s deeper motivations. Chris uses a unique example of a couple choosing between an artificial and a fake Christmas tree. One preferred artificial trees (for practical and long-term financial reasons), and the other preferred a live natural tree. By digging deeper, they learned that the scent of the real tree brought back childhood memories of family closeness that the one wanted their children to experience. Thus, it was an easy choice to choose the live tree, and no one had to compromise.

Lesson #13: Why Your Kids Don’t Talk To You

Synopsis: Children often give brief, uninformative answers when asked about their day. They do this because they often feel parents move on to follow-up questions without genuinely processing or acknowledging their first response. Additionally, when children share a negative experience, parents often question the child’s perspective or offer unsolicited advice rather than validating their feelings. As a result, parents often prioritize judgment and lectures over active listening, which causes children to shut down and avoid sharing details about their lives.

Lesson #14: An Easy Trick to Close More Deals

Synopsis: The fear of loss is the most powerful motivator in human decision-making when trying to get a buyer to make an offer. If buyers feel cornered or pressured, they will push back or act against their own best interest out of spite. Before introducing loss, address and validate the buyer’s perspective by acknowledging their belief that there is plenty of inventory or that the asset is not unique. Only after acknowledging their point of view should you frame the risk of loss.

Lesson #15: An Easy Trick to Get What You Want

Synopsis: In a conversation, take a few moments to restate and summarize the other person’s perspective before presenting your own point of view. This helps you practice active listening. People appreciate feeling genuinely understood. Demonstrating understanding often prompts the other party to voluntarily agree with your ideas, making agreement effortless.

Lessons Learned from a Hostage Negotiator

Chris’s perspectives span everyday life circumstances like phone calls, negotiations, job interviews, sales conversations, casinos, holidays, conversations with your kids, and many more.

Mindful communication underlies each of these scenarios. The way we communicate shapes how others respond. For instance, if you communicate politely, you’re more likely to receive a pleasant response back, and vice versa.

In our everyday interactions, how mindful are we of our communication styles, body language, and word choice?

If you’ve ever found yourself in the scenarios described above, you likely didn’t communicate the way Chris recommends. To be explicit, I’m not arguing his way is the “perfect” way by any means, but I do think it is interesting to see how he approaches the scenario compared to how we would.

Every interaction is a negotiation, and every action is a conversation. Being mindful of what we discuss, how we discuss it, and where we discuss it can be the difference between life and death (in Chris’s case) or between optimal and suboptimal outcomes in ours.

That’s a wrap on this deep dive.

Drew Jackson

Founder & Writer

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This Week I’m Tracking: 12 developments across the sectors shaping our future

Reading Time: 5 minutes of curated insights

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#1: Digantara

Description: Digantara is a space surveillance company.

Why Is This Company Interesting? Digantara recently raised $50M in venture capital funding. Digantara is a space-tech company focused on space situational awareness and orbital intelligence. The company deploys space-based surveillance sensors and analytical software to track satellite traffic, map space debris, and provide collision avoidance and orbital data.

#2: Brinc

Description: Brinc builds drones for emergency response agencies.

Why Is This Company Interesting? Brinc recently raised $125M in venture capital funding. Brinc aims to provide end-to-end public safety drone programs, bundling hardware, software, and services. Over 900 public safety agencies across all 50 states have deployed their solutions. These products are fully compliant and manufactured in the USA.

#3: Astranis

Description: Astranis is a commercial satellite company.

Why Is This Company Interesting? Astranis recently raised $300M in venture capital funding. Astranis is a space startup building microGEO communications satellites. Unlike traditional larger geostationary satellites, Astranis builds small, low-cost satellites dedicated to single geographic regions or customers to deliver high-speed, low-cost broadband internet access to underserved areas.

#4: Focused Energy

Description: Focused Energy is developing laser-based fusion systems.

Why Is This Company Interesting? Focused Energy recently raised $240M in venture capital funding. Focused Energy is a fusion startup that uses high-energy, short-pulse lasers combined with fast ignition target designs. Focused Energy aims to achieve scalable, commercial laser-driven nuclear fusion to supply clean, limitless baseload energy to the grid.

#5: Endurance Energy

Description: Endurance Energy is a startup that pursues undersea geothermal energy.

Why Is This Company Interesting? Endurance Energy recently raised $25M+ in venture capital funding. Endurance Energy is a clean-tech startup building modular, subsea geothermal power plants. Endurance operates near oceanic thermal resources, harnessing offshore geothermal heat to generate continuous, zero-carbon baseload energy without land-use or surface infrastructure constraints.

The New York Times: The Absurd, Unending Quest to Floodproof the New York City Subway

More than 120 years ago, workers built the first portions of the transit system by hand in shallow trenches. This meant that rain never really had to travel deep to cause chaos. Even as construction technology advanced, these problems persisted. As climate change worsens, this problem will only expand over time, with no real solution in sight.

The New York Times: In An Age of Perpetual Climate Disaster Rebuilding is the Wrong Goal

Disaster intervals are collapsing, with the time between one issue and the next shrinking rapidly. One consistently becomes the next, and recovery fails to keep pace. Drought is followed by rainfall, wildfires lead to mudslides, earthquakes are followed by hurricanes, and many more. Nobody really knows what recovery looks like, so what should we do?

The Wall Street Journal: Space Entities Dodge Traffic as Satellites Debris Crowd LEO

There is more man-made material in space than ever before. As the number of satellites in low Earth orbit increases, the chance of collisions that could damage or destroy spacecraft increases. There are over 34k satellites and pieces of debris in low Earth orbit. One major concern is that a major crash or series of crashes could set off a chain reaction, leaving parts of low Earth orbit unusable.

The New York Times: Why Labor’s Share of Wealth is Shrinking

Workers are earning a smaller and smaller share of the economy’s income. It’s now around 53% of income, down from around 65% following WWII. The reasons? Some blame industry consolidation, corporate greed, corporate profits as a share of GDP, and more. Others argue that it’s the influx of AI and other new technologies driving a reduced labor share.

Inside Trade: Governments Must Balance IP Policies for AI

Governments must balance intellectual property protections with support for AI and other emerging technologies. You can protect IP while promoting innovation and AI development, but it’s a complicated balance. Countries need better ways to do this and to be proactive.

Big Think: How to Make Difficult Decisions

Life is about asking difficult questions and accepting that there are no immediate, easy answers. We can gather information, learn from others, and research to the ends of the earth, but often the best answer eludes us. They don’t fit our standard decision-making frameworks. If external reasons run out, we can use internal reasoning to round out the process.

Reddit: What are the strongest philosophical arguments for and against the existence of god?

This is more of a tip-of-the-iceberg guide rather than a truly interesting thought. I stumbled across this post while browsing the internet the other day and thought this list of resources was interesting and could help anyone deep in this question.

For God’s Existence

• The Modal Ontological Argument, formulated by Alvin Plantinga

• The Kalam Cosmological Argument, formulated by William Lane Craig

• The Fine-Tuning Argument, formulated by Robin Collins

• The Design Argument, the best version is by Swinburne in his book cited below

• The Moral Argument, which is a family of arguments that aim to show that objective morality requires God’s existence

• The Inductive Argument, combining many of the arguments for God, by Richard Swinburne. You can read his book The Existence of God, where he formulates and defends the (total) inductive weight of many arguments for God

Against God’s Existence

• The Logical Problem of Evil, formulated by J. L. Mackie

• The Evidential Problem of Evil, formulated by William Rowe

• The Problem of Divine Evil by David Lewis

• The Argument from Divine Hiddenness has several formulations

• Oppy’s Best Argument, which purports to show that atheism is a better theory than theism over a wide range of phenomena

That’s a wrap on this week’s roundup.

Drew Jackson

Founder & Writer

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This Week I’m Tracking: 13 developments across the sectors shaping our future

Reading Time: 5 minutes of curated insights

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#1: Alva Industries

Description: Alva Industries is a producer of ultra-compact electric motors.

Why Is This Company Interesting? Alva Industries recently raised $16M in venture capital funding. Alva Industries is a deep-tech company that manufactures high-performance electric motors. Using its patented FiberPrinting process, Alva crafts lightweight, coreless electric motors for applications across robotics, autonomous systems, defense, and aerospace.

#2: Sizable Energy

Description: Sizable Energy is a pumped hydro electricity startup.

Why Is This Company Interesting? Sizable Energy recently raised $25M in venture capital funding. Sizable Energy is a clean energy startup developing gigawatt-scale, long-duration energy storage systems using subsea pumped hydro technology. By using floating and deep-ocean reservoirs to pump saltwater brine, the platform bypasses traditional land-use constraints and offers resilient grid storage.

#3: Millow

Description: Millow is a producer of alternative meats.

Why Is This Company Interesting? Millow recently raised $2M in venture capital funding. Millow is growing mycelium on oats to produce a low-water, low-emissions meat alternative. It plans to use these funds to expand its capacity and build out its commercial team to launch its minimally processed, two-ingredient mycelium meat in the European foodservice market.

#4: BioScout

Description: BioScout is a developer of sensors that alert farmers to fungal pathogens.

Why Is This Company Interesting? BioScout recently raised $6.75M in venture capital funding. BioScout is an agtech startup providing real-time, automated detection of airborne crop diseases. BioScout combines field-deployed air sensors, robotic microscopy, and computer vision to track airborne fungal spores, giving farmers early warnings and reducing unnecessary chemical spraying.

#5: Chargepoly

Description: Chargepoly is a startup focused on electrifying heavy-duty and commercial vehicle fleets.

Why Is This Company Interesting? Chargepoly recently raised $23M in venture capital funding. Chargepoly is a tech company specializing in ultra-fast, high-power EV charging infrastructure for commercial fleets, electric buses, and heavy-duty trucks. Its intelligent power-dispatching hardware and software balance power distribution to optimize charging costs and efficiency.

NBC News: Why Nuclear Energy is Making a Global Comeback

The United States leads the world in nuclear energy production, representing around 30% of global electricity generation. Globally, governments are turning to nuclear energy as a stable power source amid geopolitical uncertainty, rising electricity demand, and accelerating climate change. Nuclear power stalled after major accidents, but demand has surged recently.

ABC News: Army to Spend $2B to Build Nuclear Microreactors at 5 Bases as US Seeks to Ramp up Nuclear Power

The U.S. Army announced this week that it plans to add nuclear microreactors at 5 military bases as a reliable energy source independent of the commercial electric grid. The Trump administration has provided billions in loans for large nuclear reactors to meet current demand. The Army expects to build and operate more than 20 nuclear microreactors.

The New York Times: Why States Are Cutting Back on Their Climate Goals

After the Trump administration pulled out of the Paris climate agreement, many states passed their own laws to curtail carbon emissions. Most states that set climate goals are not on track to meet them. States that are behind either need to accelerate or abandon them. Unfortunately, some states are beginning to cut back or abandon those goals instead.

The New York Times: Is Your City Prepared for Climate Disaster?

When it comes to the effects of climate change, what matters isn’t just risk, but a place’s ability to withstand it. AlphaGeo, an AI company that analyzes and predicts location risk, ranked the resilience of 72 of the world’s largest cities. A good score was driven by two factors: low physical exposure to a checklist of climate risks and a high adaptation to those risks.

The New York Times: The Roman Telescope Promises a New Era of Cosmic Exploration

In the 1990s, NASA launched its first fleet of observatories, beginning with the Hubble Space Telescope. Now, NASA plans to launch the Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope, which promises to chart a view of the universe so wide and so deep it would take over half a million TVs to display just one image in full. The gaze is a thousand times faster and at least a hundred times wider than Hubble’s.

Pitchbook: AI Can Help Spot Bad Lettuce. That Doesn’t Make it a Good Business

Despite several outbreaks of foodborne diseases, founders and venture capitalists say that building businesses around detecting outbreaks is chasing a fad. Venture capital often chases flash-in-the-pan businesses. In food safety, investors understand the business is driven by regulatory rather than epidemiological factors, a key distinction that determines where capital flows.

The Guardian: If You’re Just Interested in Answers, You’re Missing Out

Philosophers argue that asking a question can change your mood, and having a questioning mindset can change your life. When you live focused on answers, you crave certainty, which often isn’t present in the world and naturally limits you. Questioning fosters exploration and curiosity and should be our mindset in approaching most, but not all, situations in the world.

Reddit: Corruption of the Soul is the Price for Understanding the World.

When we come into this world, each of us is a naive, basic, unknowing entity, completely oblivious to the world that is around us. Yet, over time, as we keep learning and gaining more experiences and interactions with the world around us, we slowly begin to know, and that innocence fades.

Often, we gain knowledge of the world and see that it is not the sunshine-and-rainbows place we once thought it to be. Unfortunately, corruption of the soul is the price we must pay to understand the world.

If corruption of the soul is the price to pay to understand the world, then faith is the healer of the soul, since there is no true understanding of the world. You cannot prove or, for that matter, disprove the presence of a higher calling for your life—belief is what gives you peace of mind and what teaches you that you don’t need to understand everything in order to appreciate it.

In a way. Innocence and delusion are their own forms of self-preservation, because understanding too much can corrupt your soul and your peace.

I think this is a very unique perspective on modern life and the situations we find ourselves in. What does it cost to learn more about the world, to truly understand it? It may cost everything we have.

That’s a wrap on this week’s roundup.

Drew Jackson

Founder & Writer

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© 2026 Brainwaves. All rights reserved.

Credit Vox

In 2024, I wrote an article analyzing when humans will next be on the Moon. Now it’s time for an updated perspective in 2026.

Reading Time: 12 minutes for full analysis + key takeaways highlighted throughout

Key Question: When will humans next be on the Moon?

My Take: Given current funding cycles, milestones achieved, and projected timelines, I would guess that a Moon landing will be achieved this decade. The arguably more complicated question to answer is who will do it first? China and the United States both have significantly built out programs in pursuit of this goal. Private entities have made significant milestones over the last decade to where they’re now in the conversations, potentially possessing the technology required to make a run at this ambitious goal.

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It’s been over 50 years since Apollo 17 (1972). This was the last time humans touched lunar soil.

In the ~70 years since the Wright Brothers made their historic airplane flight in 1903, humans have managed to get to the Moon multiple times.

Yet, despite all of the technological progress that has been made over the last 50 years, humans haven’t been back to the Moon.

If you haven’t been following all of the news, you’d probably be surprised that there are more countries and companies working towards the Moon right now than at any point in history.

Why?

A few reasons jump out as the main rationales for why humans haven’t been to the Moon yet.

Firstly, and arguably one of the most important points, once the United States made it to the Moon, it ended the global chase to be first. The United States had won, and thus other countries could only be second.

Secondly, many large nations that were interested in landing on the Moon had large funding cuts to their space and defense budgets due to the lack of being first, Cold War dynamics, and other geopolitical elements.

Over the last decade, these factors have been pushed aside. Space infrastructure and development costs have come down exponentially. Technological development has rapidly increased. Private space players are striving and competing to be the first commercial entities to go to the Moon.

However, these haven’t been without their issues. Now, space programs are constantly in tension, with ambitious announcements to drive funding and public interest combined with a track record of failures and repeated delays.

All of this shapes up to an interesting, competitive 2020s Space Race 2.0.

United States: The Opaque Leader

By officially communicated timelines and standards, the United States is projected to be the first back to the Moon.

The Artemis program officially began in 2017, formally establishing its ongoing endeavor to land humans back on the Moon. The goal of the program is to establish a sustainable, long-term lunar presence and lay the technical groundwork for eventual human missions to Mars.

So far, the Artemis program continues to drive towards its ultimate goal, progressing through major milestones along the way.

Artemis I, the first of the Artemis missions, was completed in December 2022 and was an uncrewed lunar orbit test. This was the maiden flight of the massive SLS rocket and Orion spacecraft. Orion traveled 1.4M miles, entered a distant retrograde orbit around the Moon, and tested deep-space radiation protection and the spacecraft’s heat shield during a high-speed re-entry into Earth’s atmosphere.

Artemis II, was competed earlier this year in April 2026 and was a crewed lunar flyby. This was humanity’s historic return to deep space. A four-astronaut crew (Reid Wiseman, Victor Glover, Christina Koch, and Jeremy Hansen) traveled on Orion for a 10-day flight. During the voyage they performed critical life-support checkouts in high Earth orbit before taking a free-return trajectory around the far side of the Moon. The crew traveled 252,706 miles from Earth, breaking the all-time human distance record set by the crew of Apollo 13.

Upcoming are three critical milestones: Artemis III, IV, and V.

Artemis III is expected in late 2027 and will be a crewed Earth orbit rendezvous and lander demo. Rather than a direct moon landing, this mission serves as a checkpoint of critical solutions. The crew will launch on SLS/Orion and perform complex rendezvous, docking, and system tests in low Earth orbit with the commercially produced human landing systems (such as SpaceX’s Starship) and test out the next-generation Axiom space suits.

Artemis IV is projected in early 2028 and will be the first crewed lunar landing since Apollo 17 in 1972. Ahead of the launch, a commercial lander will be pre-staged in lunar orbit. The crew will fly Orion to the Moon, dock with the lander, and two astronauts will descend to the lunar surface near the South Pole for multiple spacewalks before returning to Earth.

And finally, Artemis V is expected in late 2028 and will be a sustained surface exploration and base building initiative. This mission marks the transition to a permanent presence on the Moon. It will be the second crewed landing and begin deploying long-term infrastructure, such as advanced surface power systems and early logistics modules.

There are missions planned for 2029 and beyond, comprising Artemis VI through X, with the focus on creating a robust lunar economy and semi-permanent habitation on the moon. The goal is to build a small space station in lunar orbit to serve as the communication hub, science lab, and short-term habitat for astronauts.

Notably, in recent months, NASA restructured the flight sequence so that Artemis III is no longer the landing mission. Rather, it’s a crewed test flight in low Earth orbit to test docking with SpaceX Starship and Blue Origin Blue Moon lander prototypes.

This is the third major slip in the Artemis landing timeline, which, if the trend continues, could lead to missing the entire milestone of reaching the Moon first again.

China: The New Space Contender

China’s lunar ambitions are organized under the Chinese Lunar Exploration Program, widely known as the Chang’e project. While NASA’s Artemis program relies on massive, single-rocket launches, China has executed a highly methodical step-by-step strategy over the last two decades.

China’s early phases focused on mastering orbital mechanics and perfecting soft landings on the lunar surface.

• Chang’e 1 & 2 (2007 and 2010) created highly detailed 3D maps of the Moon’s surface to scout future landing sites

• Chang’e 3 in 2013 marked China’s first robotic soft-landing on the Moon, deploying the Yutu-1 rover

• Chang’e 4 in 2019 was a world first, successfully landing a spacecraft on the far side of the Moon. In addition, China deployed the Queqiao satellite to bounce signals back to Earth. In 2026, the Yutu-2 rover is still operational, making it the longest-surviving rover on the Moon.

More recently, China has been focused on sample returns, shifting the focus to complex, multi-stage robotic operations explicitly designed to test the mechanics needed for human flight.

In 2020, Chang’e 5 landed on the near-side of the Moon, drilled 2 meters into the surface, and returned 1.73 kg of young lunar rocks to Earth. This made China the third nation to successfully retrieve lunar samples.

In 2024, Chang’e 6 accomplished another world first. The probe successfully landed in the South Pole on the far side of the Moon, scooping up pristine subsurface samples, launched back into lunar orbit, and safely returned them to Earth.

Currently, there are two major upcoming missions planned, focused on evaluating resources to prepare for infrastructure building.

Chang’e 7, projected for late 2026, will be a highly complex mission to launch toward the lunar South Pole. It will carry an orbiter, a lander, a rover, and a specialized mini-flying hopper designed to fly into permanently shadowed craters to physically hunt for water ice.

Then in 2028, Chang’e 8 will test key technologies for utilizing local materials. It will experiment with 3D printing bricks out of lunar soil to see if structures can be built directly on the Moon.

Ultimately, China’s Manned Space Agency is rapidly scaling up hardware to land two astronauts on the Moon by 2030.

China’s approach is much slower but steadier than the US’s more start-stop political funding cycles. If, as many young kids learned, you’ve heard the story of the tortoise and the hare, slow but steady may win the race.

Long-Term Play for India Space Programs

In terms of a near-term Moon landing, India is more of a long-term aspirant.

Historically, India’s initial strategy relied on high-resolution mapping and testing the waters to establish a foundational baseline for global lunar science.

India’s first deep-space mission in 2008, Chandrayaan-1, carried the Moon Impact Probe, which crashed into the southern polar region to collect data. This led to the definitive presence of water molecules (ice) in the lunar soil.

Over a decade later, in 2019, Chandrayaan-2 was an orbiter, the Vikram lander, and the Pragyan rover. The orbiter was a massive success and continues to provide some of the highest-resolution radar and optical imagery of the Moon today. Unfortunately, a software glitch in the final minutes of descent caused the lander to crash.

Most recently, in 2023, the Chandrayaan-3 became the first spacecraft to land on the rugged lunar South Pole region, additionally marking India as the fourth nation overall to achieve a soft moon landing.

Upcoming is the Chandrayaan-4 mission in 2027 or 2028, using a two-launch, split-modular architecture to carry the modules and scoop up 3 kg of lunar soil. In 2029 or later, Chandrayaan-5 will be a collaboration with Japan to target the permanently shadowed region at the South Pole, trying to use a heavy rover to physically quantify the abundance of water ice.

Encouraged by the recent milestones achieved, the Indian government has formally expanded its long-term roadmap. It has established initiatives to construct the Bharatiya Antariksha Station, India’s own modular space station in low Earth orbit.

As it currently stands, India is targeting human boots on the Moon in the 2040s, leveraging the upcoming Gaganyaan human spaceflight program.

Japanese Engineering Showcased in Space

Japan’s lunar program, directed by the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA), is characterized by extreme precision, technical mastery, and large commercial-government partnerships (notably with Toyota).

Rather than building massive rockets entirely alone, Japan has positioned itself as a core partner to international efforts like NASA’s Artemis program, trading world-class engineering for seats on human flights.

Japan has an extensive history with space. In 1990, Japan’s first lunar probe, the Hiten, made them the third nation to send a spacecraft to the Moon. It tested highly complex, fuel-saving gravitational slingshot trajectories.

Then in 2007, the Japanese built one of the most sophisticated lunar orbiters to date, utilizing three distinct spacecraft to construct highly precise topographical and magnetic field maps of the Moon, while capturing the iconic high-definition “Earthrise” videos.

In 2024, Japan made history by becoming the fifth country to softly land on the Moon. The Smart Lander for Investigating Moon’s primary mission was to test a revolutionary vision navigation system, achieving precise landing within 55 meters of its target.

On the horizon is two major initiatives. The LUPEX (lunar polar exploration) mission is projected in 2027 or 2028 which is a joint partnership between JAXA and India’s ISRO. Japan is providing the heavy exploration -*rover and the primary launch vehicle. The goal of this mission is to profile the polar ice to see if life can be supported.

Similarly, Japan is tied to NASA’s Artemis program, specifically through the Toyota Lunar Cruiser. Unlike the open buggy driven during the Apollo missions, it’s a pressurized lunar rover with next-generation hydrogen fuel cell technology. It will allow two astronauts to drive over 10,000 miles or 30-45 days continuously.

In return for this infrastructure, two Japanese astronauts will land on the lunar surface during future Artemis missions, which could make a JAXA explorer the first non-American human to set foot on the Moon.

Russia’s Long-Lived But Underwhelming Space Aspirations

Russia’s space aspirations largely peaked during the Space Race 1.0. Russia was once the Moon-race pioneer via the Luna program, putting the first human in space, but its independent lunar ambitions have stalled since.

The current Luna-Glob program launched as a successor to Soviet-era Luna missions. In 2023, the Luna 25 mission was Russia’s first domestic lunar attempt in nearly 47 years. The goal was to land near a crater in the south polar region to test landing technologies and analyze soil composition. The spaceship entered lunar orbit successfully, but an improper thruster burn caused the spacecraft to crash into the lunar system. This mission truly underscored Russia’s decline in capability.

Now, the next Luna mission, 26, is expected in 2028, with the goal of placing the orbiter in a polar orbit to conduct remote sensing, map water ice distributions, measure cosmic radiation, and solar wind interactions.

Subsequent missions, 27, 28, and 29, will continue surface explorations, develop satellite communications technology, and collect soil samples.

Now, Russia’s future lunar involvement is mostly as a partner in China’s ILRS project rather than an independent effort.

Sanctions, funding constraints, and the Ukraine war have all strained Russia’s deep-space ambitions.

Additional Commercial Entrants Into The Space Market

The landscape of Moon and outer space exploration has undergone a fundamental shift over the past few decades. Commercial companies are no longer just building components for government agencies; they are acting as prime operators providing end-to-end delivery, surface communications, and landing systems.

Much of this activity is anchored by NASA’s Commercial Lunar Payload Services initiative, which is a fixed-price contract model that leverages private industry to establish a steady, low-cost pipeline to the Moon ahead of crewed Artemis missions.

Intuitive Machines is a leading commercial operator in the lunar domain, using its landers to establish communications and delivery routes near the lunar south pole. IM-1 made history in 2024 as the first commercial spacecraft to perform a soft landing on the Moon. Future missions target high-value scientific regions and expanding lunar orbital relay services.

Firefly Aerospace entered the market with its Blue Ghost lander series. In 2025, Blue Ghost Mission 1 executed a fully successful touchdown and surface operation campaign on the Moon. Future missions include targeting the far side of the Moon for landing.

SpaceX’s lunar program is focused on the Starship Human Landing System under a contract with NASA to land the first crewed Artemis missions on the surface in 2028. SpaceX is currently executing uncrewed flight tests to demonstrate propellant transfer in Low Earth Orbit. SpaceX is also designing uncrewed cargo Starship variants capable of delivering up to 100 metric tons of heavy equipment and infrastructure directly to the Moon’s surface.

Blue Origin is developing both robotic and cargo landers and a crewed lander for later Artemis flights. Blue Origin is the second, competing HLS provider to SpaceX, providing redundant access to the Moon. They are expected to execute their Moon landing for Artemis V in 2028-2029.

ispace is designing small-to-medium landers aimed at payload transit, micro-rover development, and international commercial partnerships. Early flight demonstrations in 2025 provided critical operational data for autonomous high-altitude braking and landing algorithms. Next missions are developed to deliver commercial and agency payloads to complex terrain, including far-side regions.

As of 2026, When Will Humans Actually Be Back on the Moon?

In 2024, the projected first to the Moon was the United States via the Artemis program.

In 2026, this trend continues, although the difference between the United States and its competition has shortened significantly.

Now, as the United States program continues to push timelines from 2027 to 2028 and other countries and private organizations make significant milestones, including the recent Chinese catch of the reusable rocket, the race isn’t able to be called as easily.

Some analysts think China could plausibly beat the US given its more consistent funding and schedule discipline.

What are the chances countries or private entities can accelerate their timelines? What if someone decides to simply take a shot, even if they aren’t fully prepared or tested, simply to try to become the first?

As it currently stands, humans will be back on the Moon in the next two years. Will it be sooner? Time will tell.

Those familiar with the aerospace, defense, and space market will know that timelines and milestones often change, usually pushing out further and further. Virtually every announced date so far has slipped, so healthy skepticism is warranted even as the underling momentum is real.

Keep your eyes and ears peeled, as the trip to the Moon will be made soon here, hopefully successfully in a major world first (in over 50 years).

That’s a wrap on this deep dive.

Drew Jackson

Founder & Writer

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• Next Deep Dive: Lessons Learned from a Hostage Negotiator - September 16th, 2026

• This Saturday: Weekly roundup of breaking developments across energy, space, venture capital, economics, intellectual property, and philosophy

• Previous Editions: View the archive here

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© 2026 Brainwaves. All rights reserved.

This Week I’m Tracking: 13 developments across the sectors shaping our future

Reading Time: 5 minutes of curated insights

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Let’s dive in.

#1: AGent Energy

Description: AGent Energy integrates backup generators into the grid during emergencies.

Why Is This Company Interesting? AGent Energy recently raised $11M in seed funding. AGent is an energy technology platform that turns idle commercial and industrial backup generators into revenue generators for businesses. By remotely managing and monetizing underutilized power generation, AGent provides demand-response services to strengthen power grid reliability during peak and emergency conditions.

#2: Naked Energy

Description: Naked Energy is a solar thermal developer for businesses.

Why Is This Company Interesting? Naked Energy recently raised $10.4M in venture capital funding. Naked Energy specializes in solar thermal and hybrid photovoltaic-thermal energy collectors. Its modular, vacuum-tube solar systems decarbonize heat and power for commercial and industrial buildings while using significantly less roof space than traditional solar installations.

#3: Venus Aerospace

Description: Venus Aerospace is a developer of rocket engines for hypersonic flight.

Why Is This Company Interesting? Venus Aerospace recently raised $91M in venture capital funding. Venus is developing hypersonic transportation systems and defense technologies. Known for its rotating detonation rocket engine, Venus aims to enable ultra-high-speed commercial flight and advanced space launch and defense capabilities.

#4: Hephae Energy Technology

Description: Hephae Energy Technology is a geothermal drilling startup.

Why Is This Company Interesting? Hephae Energy Technology recently raised $17.8M in venture capital funding. Hephae is developing ultra-high-temperature electronics and sensors for extreme environments. The company has developed specialized drilling, measurement, and logging tools that withstand temperatures exceeding 200 Celsius to accelerate deep geothermal energy extraction.

#5: Flexell Space

Description: Flexell Space is a developer of space solar solutions.

Why Is This Company Interesting? Flexell Space recently raised $20M in venture capital funding. Flexell Space is manufacturing flexible, ultra-lightweight solar cells for orbit. They use flexible solar cell technology to power satellites, rovers, and space infrastructure, with higher power-to-weight ratios than current market solutions.

The New York Times: Climate Change Raises Risk of Disasters Like Nepal Floods

This week there was deadly flash flooding in Nepal and Tibet. Scientists are still determining the exact cause of this week’s catastrophe. Climate change is heating up the world and increasing the risk of disasters. As humans warm the planet by burning fossil fuels, mountains are losing their permafrost, a layer that has remained frozen for thousands of years. This destabilizes the foundation beneath glaciers, leading to collapses.

The New York Times: This Year’s Record-Breaking El Niño in 3 Charts

This year’s El Niño is already very intense, and it’s just the start. Scientists expect that by December, this series of events may be the strongest in the last 80 years. This could alter weather patterns across the planet, with projections estimating that 49 million people will be driven into hunger as a result. This article highlights three charts and data sets that show the true power we’re facing.

Reuters: The Little Reactors that Could? How SMRs Became Nuclear’s Best Bet

As the world needs more clean, reliable sources of electricity, small modular nuclear reactors are becoming one of the favorite underdogs, potentially capable of disrupting the entire sector once they reach scale. The technology remains largely unproven commercially, yet market tailwinds are propelling developers toward what may be the best opportunity in nuclear energy in recent history.

Smithsonian Magazine: A Startup Just Got Approval to Test Beaming Sunlight to Earth. Here’s Why Experts Are Worried

Reflect Orbital is a company aiming to beam sunlight from space to Earth using a fleet of mirrored satellites. The goal is to improve the source of sunlight to power solar energy on Earth. Reflect Orbital wants to extend solar panels’ working hours into the nighttime. They recently received FCC approval to launch the first test satellite, but scientists are worried about the sunlight’s effects on wildlife, research, and human health.

Pitchbook: VCs Are Finding Their Best Returns Outside the Coasts

VC investment has traditionally stayed concentrated on the coasts; however, those investments have performed much more moderately. Startups in smaller hubs have been much more lucrative this year on a MOIC basis. VCs are increasingly looking outside of major metro areas for the next generation of founders.

The New York Times: This Is Why People Hate the Government

This economist describes the “time tax”: the burden of work (emotional, logistical, knowledge, etc.) that goes into any paperwork or bureaucratic process where you are the end user. Many government forms aren’t purposeful; they’re designed more to make people feel good about themselves and the government. Additionally, they’re one of the ways that we construct class—segmenting who can and who can’t.

IP Watchdog: How Patent Filings Are Now the World’s Largest Open-Source Intelligence Database

For the last 200 years, investors have publicly disclosed their inventions in exchange for a limited-time monopoly. Now, governments, intelligence agencies, and, most importantly, AI systems mine patent filings. Patent databases have become one of the world’s richest sources of open-source technology intelligence. At this point, does patent disclosure, given where AI is today, fundamentally change its strategic value?

Philosophy Break: Simone de Beauvoir: the Best Romantic Partners Celebrate Each Other’s Freedom

One of Simone de Beauvoir’s main philosophies is “To will oneself free is also to will others free.”

This is what Beauvoir thinks authentic love will look like. If we value our own freedom, then we must value the freedom of others. She believes an authentically loving relationship involves the meeting and continuation of two individual freedoms, governed by reciprocity, free choice, and respect.

In other words, love is not about forever committing to pre-given roles: the best romantic relationships consist in mutual projects of growth and change.

I’m not saying this is by any means the best or only statement on love in the universe. I think it’s a very interesting one, one that we should think more about—how love is a dynamic process that enables all to have freedom.

That’s a wrap on this week’s roundup.

Drew Jackson

Founder & Writer

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Keep Exploring

• Next Deep Dive: When Will Humans Next Be On the Moon? - September 2nd, 2026

• Previous Editions: View the archive here

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Disclaimer: Views expressed are personal opinions, not financial advice. This content is educational only. Investment decisions carry risks - always consult professionals and do your own research. All sponsorships are clearly disclosed.

© 2026 Brainwaves. All rights reserved.

I built Brainwaves on a promise of radical transparency, and Q3 really put that to the test. It wasn’t all wins and milestones—there are always ups and downs. In this update, I’m pulling back the curtain on the hard lessons we’ve learned, the numbers we’ve hit (and missed), and the roadmap guiding us through the rest of Year 3.

A Key Insight into Producing Content: Prioritization

There’s never enough time for everything you could possibly want to do in your life. I’d love to run a bakery, take up art, remodel a few homes, and do a multitude of other opportunities.

How do you manage all of these ambitions at once? Prioritization is key.

In every 24 hours, what are the highest-importance activities that you could do? If you compare what you do each day to what the highest-importance things were that day, often those aren’t always the same thing.

When it comes to newsletter writing, where should it sit in your priority stack? This is a difficult question. The key to good newsletter writing is taking time away from the writing to compose your thoughts, see parts of the world, and come to the pieces with new perspectives.

But you also need to keep up your backlog and pipeline, and keep building your brand outside your content (social media, interviews, websites, etc.).

In my life, this means some nights and a lot of the weekend are devoted to my newsletter. For you, this could be a 9-5 gig, where you spend every waking hour on the newsletter. Or it could be much more of a part-time venture where you occasionally spend time on it.

If it brings you happiness and joy, it should probably be prioritized in your life. If it feels more like work, maybe it shouldn’t eat up every waking hour you have.

Thanks for listening to my short monologue, and with that, let’s get into the quarterly update.

Brainwaves: What Happened This Quarter?

This quarter, I experimented more with shorter-form content (<2,500 words). They’re much easier to write on my side, and I like emphasizing the point and keeping the punchiness of each topic without needlessly droning on for length.

I’ll keep experimenting with these content formats as I continue to see how they perform and which you guys like better. To everyone who’s followed this content journey so far, thank you, and I hope you keep enjoying the different depths of content.

There were some good articles released this quarter, and I’m looking forward to what’s coming. Hopefully, you caught each one; if not, take a peek below (I highly recommend We Love Lying Ourselves and The Generation That Can Only Fail Upwards if you’re looking for a nice short read).

Articles You May Have Missed From This Quarter:

• Special Edition: Interview with Joe Biel - An interview with the owner of Microcosm Publishing, discussing the publishing industry

• The High Cost of Indispensable People - A guide on tips to survive the transition of an indispensable team member

• Fluctuat Nec Mergitur - A long-form deep dive into Futures Thinking series tenet #8

• The Generation That Can Only Fail Upwards - A modern wealth-based phenomenon preventing the young from succeeding

• Real Options - My guest post on Innovate, Disrupt, or Die in October 2025

• We Love Lying to Ourselves - Self-deception as a coping mechanism

• Carrots, Sticks, and Kilowatts - Dissecting the incentive structure behind the move to clean energy

The Saturday Morning Newsletter: What Happened This Quarter?

This quarter has continued the recent streak of busyness, where the newsletter is fit in wherever possible (leading to some late nights and early mornings). I’m super excited that you keep reading it each week and stay up to date on current events - only more to come in the future!

Articles You May Have Missed:

• The Saturday Morning Newsletter #92: Living in the Wilderness, Deepfake Laws, and NASA Buying Two Cars for the Moon

• The Saturday Morning Newsletter #93: Bias in Every Decision, 3 Summer Reading Books, and Why Groceries Are So Expensive

• The Saturday Morning Newsletter #94: What To Do About Children, El Nino Is Here, and Growing Insects for Animal Nutrition

• The Saturday Morning Newsletter #95: Missing Your Childhood or the Future You Imagined, Space Permanently Changes the Human Body, and The Secrets of the Turf Master

• The Saturday Morning Newsletter #96: How to Become a Likable Person, European Heat Waves, and Robotics Servicing Satellites in Orbit

• The Saturday Morning Newsletter #97: The Value of Freedom, Grocery Price Emergency in America, and Tracking Dangerous Heat in the U.S.

• The Saturday Morning Newsletter #98: Best Mental Health Advice, America’s Inventions, and What We Can Learn From Nordic Happiness

• The Saturday Morning Newsletter #99: Books & Life Smarts, China’s Successful Rocket Launch, and How Companies Have Abandoned Climate Goals

• The Saturday Morning Newsletter #100: 100th Edition, Trump’s Plan for Science, and Fin-Based Renewable Tidal Energy

• The Saturday Morning Newsletter #101: Genuinely Uncommon Ideas, Thinking For Yourself Not AI, and Destroying Books

• The Saturday Morning Newsletter #102: What Children Owe Their Parents, Saving Endangered Species, and Adapting to the New Wildfire Age

• The Saturday Morning Newsletter #103: Evolutionary Mismatch, Federal Cuts for Wildfire Fighters, and Developing New Crop Varieties

• The Saturday Morning Newsletter #104: The Decline of Genuine Connection, Obesity Investing, and Smart Weather Balloons

Brainwaves: By The Numbers

This quarter saw some pretty massive growth, going from 309 to 379 subscribers. I’m so glad to have beaten our goal this quarter, and I’m hoping it’s only good momentum to come. I have several ideas to keep this positive trend going, and I hope you’ll see a few of them come down the pipeline. Ultimately, having more subscribers increases the likelihood that someone benefits from my content each week, which is my ultimate goal.

After a breakout performance last quarter with some very large articles, this quarter has been more muted, with lower views and open rates. I’m still trying to figure out some behind-the-scenes variables with SEO and the website, which hasn’t driven as many views this quarter as it has historically (I’m thinking some indexing issues), so hopefully that will be sorted out this quarter. Thank you to the consistent readers each week who push the numbers up. It’s always great to see what content resonates the most.

The Saturday Morning Newsletter is incredibly consistent with its performance. However, if you throw a trend line on the newsletter views and open rate graphs, the trend isn’t pretty. From other newsletters I subscribe to like this, it’s easy to let them keep hitting your inbox without really reading them, just always having the intention to read them at some later date. Hopefully, this trend reverses this quarter, with some standout articles gaining traction.

We’ve been revamping the website for optimal performance this quarter and last, and the results show up in the numbers. My favorite metric is scroll depth, which is best in class for newsletters, and one of my goals is to keep producing content people want to view and keep reading in depth.

Last Quarter Goal Execution

1) Dive into my unique brainwaves each day, write about them, and publish my in-progress views each week, hopefully making a positive impact on someone’s life each week

Success.

As I’ve already touched on, this quarter has been a very exciting time for learning, discovery, and growth. I can’t wait to share what I’ve learned in the upcoming quarters.

2) Curate an experience that readers enjoy, one that makes them want to return for more

Success.

I think readers enjoyed the experience this quarter - I see more of you liking posts than we’ve had historically, which I appreciate. Obviously, there is always room for improvement, but hopefully I’m doing a good job overall.

3) Subscriber Goal In 3 Months: 375

Success.

Readers, I greatly appreciate all of the work you have put in this quarter sharing the newsletter with friends, colleagues, and family. As you continue to enjoy it, please keep sharing it with those you think would value these insights. It makes me happy to see the platform keep growing and evolving, touching the lives of more and more people along the way.

4) Continue building on our social media success

Success (ish).

Social media performance has been similar this quarter to prior quarters, with no measurable increase in performance through scale or increased learnings. I’m glad performance hasn’t meaningfully decreased, but I think we can stay intentional this quarter about where we spend our efforts.

5) Drive subscribers through the referral program

Fail.

Three quarters ago, I began the referral program (here). It hasn’t caught on yet. So far, I’ve mainly pursued it through small initiatives to drive traffic.

I’m not sure whether I should double down or cut my losses for now. I’ll keep thinking about this over the next bit to see what I want to do.

6) Read more books associated with subjects I’m interested in

Success.

I read a few books this quarter that relate to the topics discussed in the newsletter, and I’m excited to incorporate these insights and perspectives into upcoming articles. I hope to continue having time here to broaden my perspective and share interesting finds with you.

Goals For This Quarter

1) Dive into my unique brainwaves each day, write about them, and publish my in-progress views each week, hopefully making a positive impact on someone’s life each week

This is the first and most important goal of this platform, and the reason I started this journey. I view this platform as a great excuse to share my unique perspectives on some of my favorite topics, trying to understand and continually refine my viewpoint on each subject.

I subscribe to the mantra that you learn more about a subject when you have to teach someone else. Through the Brainwaves platform, I’ve created an artificial obligation to produce content each week, which means I’m carving out time in my schedule to learn about new topics I might not have prioritized before.

This platform also allows me to publish my in-progress views on each subject I learn about each week. This is a great opportunity to get feedback from readers who may know more about these subjects than I do or have a unique viewpoint I haven’t considered.

This entire process is driven by the goal of making a positive impact on someone’s life each week.

2) Curate an experience that readers enjoy, one that makes them want to return for more

The goal of this platform is to create an experience readers enjoy so much that they keep coming back each week for more and more content. Now, that’s an incredibly lofty goal, but one I continue to strive towards each week.

I hope you enjoy the content each and every week!

3) Subscriber Goal In 3 Months: 480

I hate asking people for help, so I normally keep my “ask” to share/subscribe to this publication very short, and usually, most people just brush right past it.

Today, I’m putting it front and center.

If you enjoy and/or get any value from the Brainwaves platform, help me get to 480 subscribers by the end of November by doing any of the following:

• Forward this email to friends and tell them to subscribe,

• Share on LinkedIn, Twitter, and Facebook with a short note,

• Share within your existing community or your company Slack channel.

Share

Getting to 480 people shouldn’t be hard. To put it into perspective, with 379 of you currently subscribed, we just need a referral rate of 0.26 (~1 in 4 people sharing) to reach 480. I’d really appreciate it if you could take a couple of minutes to help me broaden this platform’s reach and impact.

To reiterate, the goal of this platform is not to become famous or generate an income stream; it is purely to educate people like you about critical factors in our future. So, the goal of increasing subscribers is not to grow larger (although that is a nice economies-of-scale byproduct); it is simply to reach a broader audience consistently, and an audience that I will hopefully have a positive impact on every single week.

In addition, more subscribers mean more views and a greater likelihood that one of my readers knows more about a subject than I do, creating more opportunities for me to learn and grow through this process.

4) Expand my backlog of articles

I’ve not had as much time as I’ve wished lately to spend on writing long-form bi-weekly newsletter articles. My backlog is in a fine spot, but I think it can be much better.

I’ll keep making concerted efforts to work through my backlog this quarter, which will hopefully translate into better, more structured articles in the quarters to come.

I think it’s ambitious, but well within reach.

5) Read more books associated with subjects I’m interested in

I’ve started reading books on subjects that interest me, and they’ve definitely helped round out my thinking, offer new perspectives, and deepen my knowledge of the niche subsegments within each sector.

I’ve already got some exciting books lined up for some segments I’m interested in. Hopefully, you’ll get to see a couple of insights here and there.

Thank You + Bonus Content

Thank you for sticking around. For anyone new here: thank you too! I hope you’ve enjoyed your time here and will keep coming back for more content each week.

I’m excited to see what happens this next quarter. This passion project keeps growing and developing, and it astounds me every day. Like always, this is purely for fun and learning, and so far it’s been great.

As a little thank you, here’s a little hint at what’s coming down the pipeline:

Moon Landings?

Hostage Negotiators?

Adding to 1000s of Articles?

….and more

With that, thank you again for your support! As is customary, here’s a Kardashian + friends quote to brighten your week:

“Being a mom is what life is about. I hope people realize what the priorities in life should be and know not everything has to be perfect.”

- Kourtney Kardashian

Thank you again for another great quarter!

Drew Jackson

Thank you for reading the Brainwaves newsletter. Please ask your friends, colleagues, and family members to sign up.

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This Week I’m Tracking: 14 developments across the sectors shaping our future

Reading Time: 5 minutes of curated insights

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Let’s dive in.

#1: InsectBiotech

Description: InsectBiotech is a startup using fly larvae to convert agricultural byproducts.

Why Is This Company Interesting? InsectBiotech recently raised $7.2M in venture capital funding. InsectBiotech is a circular bioeconomy startup that uses fly larvae to process agricultural waste, specifically olive pomace and brewery byproducts. InsectBiotech converts these low-value byproducts into sustainable protein meal for animal feed, organic fertilizer, and biodiesel oils.

#2: Mitti Labs

Description: Mitti Labs is reducing methane emissions from rice farming.

Why Is This Company Interesting? Mitti Labs recently raised $9.5M in venture capital funding. Mitti Labs is a climate-tech company leveraging satellite data and AI to transform rice farming. Mitti Labs helps smallholder farms adopt sustainable agricultural techniques that reduce methane emissions and water usage, generating carbon credits for corporate sustainability programs.

#3: Neuraspace

Description: Neuraspace is a space domain awareness and traffic management platform.

Why Is This Company Interesting? Neuraspace recently raised $15.6M in venture capital funding. Neuraspace is a space-tech company building AI and machine learning software for space traffic management. The platform tracks orbital debris, predicts collision risks, and provides satellite operators with automated maneuver suggestions to prevent costly in-space accidents.

#4: WindBorne Systems

Description: WindBorne Systems is a developer of smart weather balloons.

Why Is This Company Interesting? WindBorne Systems recently raised $37M in venture capital funding. WindBorne Systems is a weather intelligence company deploying autonomous, long-duration smart microballoons. WindBorne collects atmospheric data from regions to power high-resolution planetary weather models and improve extreme weather predictions.

#5: Plantible Foods

Description: Plantible Foods is a plant-based protein producer.

Why Is This Company Interesting? Plantible Foods recently raised $10M in venture capital funding. Plantible Foods is a B2B food technology company cultivating duckweed. Plantible extracts a functional plant protein called Rubi, which exceeds animal proteins in binding, emulsifying, and gelation capabilities for food and cosmetic applications.

Reuters: Solar Industry Grapples with Growing Waste Stream

As solar continues to grow exponentially as a share of global energy, the world doesn’t have a complete plan for the waste. What happens to the panels when they break? What happens when solar panels are replaced with newer technology? Solar panels contain valuable materials that can be recycled, but many parts can’t. Where do they go?

Oil Price: Americans’ $4B Wind Retreat Is a Bet on Permanently Cheap Gas

The United States has committed around $4B to reimburse companies for abandoning offshore-wind leases, directing future capital to oil and natural-gas projects instead. Natural gas already supplies around 40% of US electricity. Increasing this concentration leaves consumers, businesses, and the country more exposed to fuel-price volatility, as seen during the Iran War.

The New York Times: The Gulf Oil Shock is Pushing EV Sales to New Heights Globally

Electric car sales are on track to hit record highs this year, with 29% of all new cars purchased worldwide expected to be either purely battery-powered models or plug-in hybrids. The recent sales boom was unexpected. The US war with Iran caused oil and gas prices to spike, leading to a frenzy of electric car sales in unexpected corners of the globe.

The New York Times: Nation’s Largest Reservoirs Are Drying Up

Lake Powell and Lake Mead are drying up. This is creating cascade effects where the Colorado River has less flow, restricting water and electricity for millions of people. These are essential water sources for cities and farms across Arizona, Nevada, and Southern California. Shrinking reservoirs result from record-low snowpack this winter, a byproduct of climate change.

The New York Times: The Golden Age of Space Transportation

The Trump Administration released a space policy aimed at increasing the number of rockets going up to space and back down. The goal is more than 1,000 rocket launches and spacecraft re-entries per year by 2030. This incredible goal puts heavy emphasis on developing additional launch and landing sites.

Pitchbook: Obesity Investing’s Way Forward

Obesity drugs have created a massive market through a proven blueprint with blockbuster GLP-1s. Pitchbook mapped hundreds of clinical-stage obesity programs across development stages and biological mechanisms. This field is rapidly developing, although providers need to show differentiation and true efficacy to survive.

The New York Times: The Next China Shock is Here

China continues to dominate many advanced manufacturing sectors, from electric vehicles to batteries to solar panels to AI software. China is at the frontier, and that will transform geopolitics much like its large export phase. Some are calling this the “China Shock 2.0.”

Timberjay: A Possible Path to Hope and Tranquility

Humans continually lay the groundwork for future generations throughout all of history. However, man’s curiosity, relentlessness, and inventiveness will lead them into deep trouble. These traits will also enable him to bounce back. Do what you can to bring lightness and tranquility into your life.

Reddit: The Decline of Genuinely Deep Connections is Scaring Me

Today, connections are instant. You can easily talk with, see posts from, and communicate with people across the globe at the blink of an eye.

In many ways, this has been a positive trend, especially for those who are isolated and lonely. People can find more people like them, like-minded communities, and people who are on their wavelength more easily.

On the flip side, this has made many people cold and emotionless. Because connections can be made so easily and quickly, it’s also incredibly easy to throw them away on a whim because you know how easy it is to make another when needed.

People are simply being used more and more. People want friendships but don’t want to be friends.

This is a reminder to continue pursuing the genuine relationships in your life. People in your life matter; keep them around.

That’s a wrap on this week’s roundup.

Drew Jackson

Founder & Writer

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© 2026 Brainwaves. All rights reserved.

Credit Southern Cross

Carrots and sticks compel governments, businesses, and consumers to transition to clean energy, but is the current system enough?

Reading Time: 12 minutes for full analysis + key takeaways highlighted throughout

Key Question: How are people incentivized to transition to clean energy?

My Take: Transitioning to clean energy is driven by a powerful mix of carrots (positive incentives such as tax breaks and cost savings) and sticks (negative incentives such as carbon taxes and reputational risk). Often, the sticks are more powerful than the carrots, but this varies by sector.

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Let’s dive in.

As solar, wind, geothermal, and other clean energy sources entered the mainstream in the early 2000s and gained momentum in the 2010s, the main push was to “save the environment.” Major news networks consistently ran studies showing how fossil fuels were destroying our planet and that it was everyone’s responsibility to make a change. For example, a 2010 article by NASA concluded with the following:

Ultimately, global warming will impact life on Earth in many ways, but the extent of the change is largely up to us. Scientists have shown that human emissions of greenhouse gases are pushing global temperatures up, and many aspects of climate are responding to the warming in the way that scientists predicted they would. This offers hope. Since people are causing global warming, people can mitigate global warming, if they act in time. Greenhouse gases are long-lived, so the planet will continue to warm and changes will continue to happen far into the future, but the degree to which global warming changes life on Earth depends on our decisions now.

Consumers were pushed to install solar panels on their homes, switch to electric vehicles, and recycle every last piece of plastic, paper, glass, and metal products. Consumers pushed businesses to adopt clean energy, recycling, and green sourcing processes. Governments pushed consumers and businesses to change, often driven by scientific pressure, geopolitical concerns, and international agreements.

Why should they change? At the most basic level: for the greater good—the survival of all, the thriving of the forests, the clean air, the environmental ramifications.

For some, that was enough incentive to change their behavior. For many others, however, they needed more incentives.

Now in 2026, the clean energy transition is no longer just an environmental crusade—it’s evolved into an economic and geopolitical chess match.

National Security & Economic Prosperity

Arguably, the entities most affected by the clean energy transition (or lack thereof) are countries.

For nations, the clean energy transition often boils down to creating domestic energy sources, which is becoming increasingly critical to national security and economic dominance.

This is one of the most important incentives driving the clean energy transition. As the recent closure of the Strait of Hormuz showed, many countries remain heavily dependent on fossil fuels and can be crippled by supply cutoffs due to geopolitical issues.

Thus, in these scenarios, energy security from domestic sources is crucial—whether from clean sources, domestic fossil fuel supplies, nuclear energy, or other domestic energy sources. In other words, this solution isn’t entirely proprietary to clean energy; it applies to any energy source that can be supplied domestically. Many countries lack domestic supplies of many fossil fuels or other energy sources, but almost all have sun and wind to leverage.

Credit MacroTrends

As we’ve seen through the Iran war conflict, the price of a barrel of oil (shown in the graph above) has risen dramatically, creating tension in countries that lack true energy independence through supply chain issues and price spikes.

Beyond national security concerns, building infrastructure for new energy sources creates massive job growth in manufacturing, logistics, infrastructure, and technology development. This keeps funding in-country, bolsters the energy grid, and provides income for families across the region.

For example, the Department of Energy in 2024 cited that jobs in the clean energy sector grew at more than twice the rate of overall U.S. employment. Jobs in clean energy grew by 4.2%, more than twice the overall economy’s job growth rate of 2.0%.

On the flip side, countries have been forced to transition to clean energy because they face heavy tariffs or potential trade penalties from trading partners if they don’t decarbonize domestic goods.

And, most importantly, countries and their citizens must pay ever-increasing bills for the destruction caused by extreme weather events. The National Centers for Environmental Information report that since 1980, there have been 403 weather events with over $1B in losses in the United States, averaging 9 events per year, with the average over the last 5 years at an astonishing 23.

This demonstrates a worrying trend: unmitigated climate effects are causing disproportionate harm compared to the costs of mitigation. Governments must drive and even impose change at a national level to have any true effect; simply waiting for individuals and businesses to change will not create the urgency necessary to succeed and prevent further impacts.

ESG & Consumer Preferences

Over the last decade, a new term has emerged in business: “ESG.” As I wrote two years ago, consumers, employees, and regulators are increasingly demanding that companies be good stewards of natural and social capital and have the governance in place to support these efforts.

In many ways, sustainability is now an unofficial fiduciary duty.

Some of the most important economic minds have weighed in on this topic over time, most notably Nobel laureate Milton Friedman. In Friedman’s viewpoint, a corporation’s sole responsibility is to increase profits for its shareholders. Thus, using funds for social causes or efforts unrelated to profitability is a reckless, negligent act for a manager and effectively amounts to spending other people’s money without their consent. Why should corporate executives be the ones to decide what is socially responsible? Instead, if profit is maximized, each shareholder will have more money to give to these causes, potentially providing a larger total benefit to the “best” causes.

In contrast, many modern economists argue that corporations cannot operate in a vacuum and must account for all stakeholders—including employees, customers, suppliers, and local communities. The rationale is that companies create social and environmental externalities, such as pollution, and thus should bear responsibility for mitigating these impacts rather than offloading the costs to society.

To my knowledge, there hasn’t been a conclusive answer on this subject, although one of the leading perspectives (the middle camp) I’ve seen is a modified version of the Friedman position, arguing that corporations should be socially and environmentally responsible to the extent it helps them maximize profits—any further should not be pursued, as it detracts from the maximization of profit.

This is an important issue because it dramatically affects companies’ perceptions of the external environment. For example, a key concern for many workers evaluating companies as potential employers is their stance on ESG issues and how much they promote and integrate ESG into their business operations.

Beyond ESG concerns, companies face many other incentives and disincentives to transition to clean energy. For instance, many governments offer lucrative tax credits and grants to help companies green their operations.

From an operational cost standpoint, businesses are facing difficult decisions on every front, especially in the United States, as supply chain uncertainties and inflation abound. Luckily, in 2026, solar and wind are now the cheapest forms of new electricity in most of the world, leading to cheaper corporate power purchase agreements, with some corporations choosing to build and own clean energy infrastructure rather than buy from grid operators.

This directly impacts the bottom line, creating an incentive structure that employees, customers, and shareholders can support while protecting the environment and the planet’s resources.

Negative incentives also push companies to transition to clean energy. In many countries, companies face strict carbon taxes, emissions caps, and mandatory climate disclosure laws. Corporations that don’t pursue ESG and/or clean energy transitions risk consumer boycotts and greenwashing lawsuits that damage brand equity.

Given rising energy costs, oil companies and other infrastructure-oriented and -reliant companies risk being left with billions of dollars in fossil-fuel and legacy energy infrastructure that will become obsolete and worthless before it pays for itself. As a result, many are decreasing or entirely halting development of new fossil-fuel infrastructure.

Financial Incentives & Infrastructure Upgrades

Over the last decade, perhaps the group most relentlessly pushed to transition to clean energy was everyday individuals.

Consumers were promised that home values would increase by more than the cost of the solar panels and installation, and that their monthly energy bills would be significantly reduced. Opendoor estimates that solar panels typically add 3-4% to a home’s sale price nationally, a medium premium of around $15k (often less than the true cost of the panels).

Given recent geopolitical and other economic factors, third-party energy costs have steadily increased. Luckily, those who proactively installed rooftop solar and home batteries have been insulated from these rising grid electricity prices. In 2023, more than 1 in 5 new residential solar systems included batteries, and that share is climbing rapidly.

For individual consumers, vehicles and transportation have historically been among the largest CO2 emitters. Luckily, governments have been pushing large-scale electric vehicle point-of-sale discounts and tax credits.

Credit EIA

As you can see on the graph above, the share of electric and hybrid vehicles has steadily increased as a share of total cars on the road; there is still much market share to gain over time.

It hasn’t been all sunshine and rainbows. Especially over the last few years, consumers in the United States have faced rising inflation across all product categories. Perhaps an overlooked cost has been the dramatic increase in energy costs in addition to physical products. Over the last 5 years, energy costs have increased by ~50%.

This has resulted from rising gas and heating oil costs as governments phase out fossil fuel subsidies, infrastructure continues to age, and supply has been further constrained beyond OPEC thresholds.

On a larger scale, traditional gas cars and inefficient homes, as they become increasingly outdated and face rising refurbishment and/or operating costs, are losing market value faster than other “cleaner” peer assets.

More Incentives Are Needed to Enact Short-Term Change

Ultimately, the clean energy transition has fundamentally outgrown its original identity as a purely altruistic environmental crusade. What began as a plea to “save the planet” has evolved into a reality driving global economics, national security strategy, and consumer financial decisions.

As we’ve seen over the last decade, the effects of climate change continue to compound, leaving a deadly trail of destruction, casualties, disease, drought, and more. Governments continue to urge their citizens and businesses to change, to no avail. Some countries, businesses, and consumers remain in deep denial about these changes, undermining global initiatives and muddying the political waters.

Today, the world faces a cost of inaction. Often, decision-making doesn’t factor in that cost. Without the threat of climate change, we wouldn’t be moving toward green energy sources even 10% as fast as we are currently. To shape our future, green energy sources must address economic challenges, which is only possible through innovation and public policy.

Luckily, all hope is not lost. Renewable energy accounted for ~32% of global electricity generation in 2024. Already, 10 countries are fully renewable-based, with another 11 over 90%. As seen above, electric vehicles account for around 21% of all cars in the United States, are rapidly growing in market share, and are projected to become the majority in the near future.

For many, the incentives currently in place are enough to inspire long-term change. However, to ensure mass change across the entire world in the short term, on the scale necessary to stall and reverse the effects of climate change, more and larger incentives need to be created. Generally, people move twice as fast away from pain as they do towards gain.

That’s a wrap on this deep dive.

Drew Jackson

Founder & Writer

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• This Saturday: Weekly roundup of breaking developments across energy, space, venture capital, economics, intellectual property, and philosophy

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Disclaimer: Views expressed are personal opinions, not financial advice. This content is educational only. Investment decisions carry risks - always consult professionals and do your own research. All sponsorships are clearly disclosed.

© 2026 Brainwaves. All rights reserved.